Issue #131
July 12, 2009
 The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation 


Correction Continues! 8000 Level in the DOW Likely to be Seen.

DOW Friday close at 8147

The DOW gave a sell signal this week when it closed below the previous weekly low close support at 8269. In addition, the index had the 4th week in a row of lower closes and is now in a short-term downtrend. The index, though, is reaching levels of strong weekly support at 8000, both from previous closes as well as psychological support, and with July generally considered a calm month, further downside of consequence is not expected to be seen at this time.

It must also be mentioned that the volume seen during the last few weeks has been on a par with the lowest seen in the last 10 years. As such, it is not likely that there will be enough trading to generate any kind of strong move in either direction.

On a weekly closing basis, decent resistance is now found at 8575. Above that level, strong resistance is seen at 8799. On a daily closing basis, decent to strong resistance will be found between 8269 and 8325 from a total of 4 previous low closes in that area, as well as the most recent high daily close at 8325. Above that level decent to strong resistance is found between 8504 and 8529. Resistance is strong between 8556 and 8575. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong between 8001 and 8046. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 8017, strong between 7937 and 7957, and minor again at 78.42. Below that there is minor support at 7790 and strong support between 7502 and 7522.

With the sell signal generated on the weekly chart on Friday, the probability of follow through to the downside this week is high. Drops down to the 8000 level, and perhaps as low as 7937, on a daily closing basis, are now possible and perhaps even probable. In addition, rallies will now likely generate new selling, causing the indexes to be on the defensive until some positive fundamental change occurs.

It must be mentioned that the 100-day MA is currently at 7970 and that will not only give that level added support, but without negative news it is unlikely that the line will be broken on a daily closing basis. The low volume and slow action being seen over the past few weeks will also likely prevent a break of support at this moment. Nonetheless, due to the fact there are many earnings reports due out over the next few weeks, the DOW is likely to react in an unexpected way if the reports are way out of line.

It must be noted that the DOW broke the neckline (8260) of a Head & Shoulders formation on Tuesday and subsequently confirmed the break with several closes below that line. The Head & Shoulders formation offers an objective of 7641, on an intra-day basis. The formation is clearly evident on the daily chart, and even seen on the intra-week weekly chart, but not on the weekly closing chart. As such, the strength and likelihood of reaching the objective is in question. It is evident, on the weekly closing chart, that the 8000 level is now a strong support level, as well as an important pivot point. A close next Friday below 8000 would make reaching the H&S objective likely. Nonetheless, a close at or above that level next Friday would tend to dissipate the strength of the formation.

Either way, without a major fundamental piece of news, it is highly likely that the index will be under selling pressure this coming week. With a clear weekly close objective next Friday down near the 8000 level, it is likely that any intra-week rallies will be met with strong selling. Nonetheless, with the previous week's trading range of only 241 points, it is unlikely the range will be any different this coming week.

Possible trading range for the week is 8178 to 7937, with a close next Friday between 8001 and 8046.

NASDAQ Friday Close at 1756

The NASDAQ paints a confusing picture as the index shows a different picture on the weekly chart than on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the index was able to close above the 50-week MA, currently at 1750, as well as hold itself above a previous high weekly close of some consequence at 1739. In addition, no previous weekly low close has been broken so no sell signal has yet been given. These actions would tend to show an index that is holding up well.

Nonetheless, on the daily chart, the index did give a sell signal this past week when it closed below an important previous low daily close at 1765. The index also shows a breakaway/runaway gap formation that has now been confirmed with a spike low immediately thereafter, as well as with the break of support at 1765. Such a break of daily close support is likely to prevent the index from trying to close the gaps without a change of trend. The two-gap formation is considered a strong bearish indicator.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 1838 and strong at 1859. On a daily closing basis, resistance is now strong at 1764/1765 from a previous high and low close of consequence at that level. Above the level, resistance is minor at 1827 and strong at 1846. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at the 50-week MA, currently at 1750. Minor support is down at a previous weekly closing high at 1739 and then nothing until decent support is reached at 1680 (most recent low weekly close). Below that level there is no support until 1552 is reached. On a daily closing basis, there is some minor psychological support at 1750. Below that level there is minor support at 1692 and decent support at 1664. Strong support will be found at 1644 (100-day MA) and at 1628 (200-day MA.

There is no doubt that the NASDAQ is showing a confusing picture. It was certainly evident this past week when the index was the weakest of the three on Tuesday but the strongest of the three on Friday. Without a particular reason for such a discrepancy, it seems that the traders are keying much of their day-to-day feelings into this index, rather than on the other two. As such, this index will likely show the most volatility as the earnings reports come out.

It is evident that the 50-week MA, currently at 1750, will likely be an important pivot point for the week. If the index is able to get below and stay below that line, selling pressure will likely mount. If that happens, it is likely the traders will be looking to take the index down to the 1680 level where the 20-week MA as well as the most recent weekly close support is found. If the indexes do show weakness this week, as anticipated, that level is a highly likely objective for the week.

On the upside, the 1765 level, on a daily closing basis, will be very important. A close above that level will likely generate strong buying as well as an attempt to close the gaps at 1793/1796 and at 1824/1844. With the index closing on Friday at 1756, it is likely the NASDAQ will be the swing index for the week, based on what the earnings reports show.

Nonetheless, it must be stated that the probabilities favor downside action as the burden of proof is squarely on the shoulders of the bulls. With the sell signal given, the first action taken by the traders will be to sell rallies. As such, the index needs strong earnings news this week to stem the tide.

Possible trading range for the week is 1756 to 1690.

S&Poors 500 Friday close at 879

The SPX closed on Friday below the previous weekly low close at 882 and in the process gave a sell signal. Nonetheless, the entire area between 872 and 882 is considered support on the weekly chart, as the index has a total of 2 other previous low weekly closes at 872 and 876, prior to the most recent low close. As such, it cannot yet be said with any degree of certainly that the index is heading lower.

Nonetheless, with the break of the most recent support, it can be said that the index needs positive fundamental news in order to generate any kind of a rally of consequence from these levels. The probabilities still favor lower levels being seen, unless the earnings reports this week show positive surprises, above and beyond what is expected.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 929/931 and very strong at 946. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 898, decent at 908 from a previous high daily close, as well as from the 50-day MA, and strong at 927/929. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent between 872 and 876. Below that level there is minor support at 825 and very strong support at 800. On a daily closing basis, there is no support until the 100-day MA is reached at 851. Strong support will be found between 787 and 805.

On Tuesday, the SPX broke the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation with a daily close below 893. The objective of the formation, on a daily closing basis, is 840. Nonetheless, much like with the DOW, the formation is evident on the intra-day and daily closing chart, as well as in the intra-week weekly chart, but not on the weekly closing chart. As such, the weekly objective to the downside may be negated if the index is able to hold the weekly close supports at 872/876 or even if just able to hold itself above the 20-week and 100-day MA's, both around 851.

It must be mentioned, though, that the weekly chart does show a strong probability of an intra-week drop down to 839/845 as those were the intra-week lows seen back in October, when the index was first falling down to these levels. In addition, the spike type downward action seen this week, in conjunction with a weekly close near the lows of the week seems to suggest further downside will be seen this week. The index has continued to hug the 200-day MA, currently at 878, without generating a decisive close below it, but if the week's low at 869 gets broken, drops down to the 100-day MA, currently at 851, will become probable.

To the upside, it seems that 887 is a likely pivot point. If the index is able to get above that level, a rally up to the 909 area would become possible and maybe even probable. It must be stated, though, that the action this week was bearish and the index on Friday was not able to prevent a break of the weekly close support at 882, thus generating a sell signal in the process. It is evident that all the indexes will be keying on the earnings reports that come out this week. Nonetheless, if there are no major positive surprises, it is likely that the selling pressure will continue.

Possible trading range for the week is 880 to 851.


It is very difficult to generate a high probability evaluation on the indexes on a week where there will be many earnings reports. Nonetheless, with the sell signals generated in the DOW and the SPX this past week, the burden of proof is now in the hands of the bulls. As such, the probabilities favor strong selling on any rallies generated, especially since downside objectives have not yet been reached.

The volume in the indexes has been among the lowest seen in the last 10 years and with July generally being a slow month, traders have been reluctant to do much in the market. In addition, the mid-year earnings reports that come out in July have often been the least attended to, as it is understood that business generally begins to slow down as spring begins and the summer doldrums come into place. As such, the likelihood of strong moves in either direction is limited.

This is a week, though, that not only a slew of earnings reports will come out, but several important economic reports will also be seen. PPI, CPI, Retail sales, and Industrial production numbers are due out this week. With such low participation in the market, it does set up the possibility of some volatile swings being seen, based on these reports. By the same token, due to the present status of the short-term trend (negative), such rallies will likely be met with strong selling, with the express intent of downside tests of important support being fulfilled.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation 
 
CHART Outlooks

This is almost an impossible week to put on positions on either side as the primary downside objectives do not offer much in the way of good risk/reward ratios and the upside is unlikely to be seen this week.

In addition, with the earnings reports starting to come out, changes of momentum could happen on a daily basis, making plays risky as well.

Nonetheless I am mentioning a couple of shorts that could work out this week, as well as a couple of longs that if the desired entry points are obtained, offer good risk/reward ratio plays as well as decent probability numbers.

SGR (Friday Closing Price - 23.69)

Since achieving a 7-month high on April 30th at 34.70, SGR has been on a short-term downtrend that has presently accelerated and that is likely to take the stock down to support levels of interest and importance. It is evident that the stock was unable to continue to generate further upside and strong profit taking has taken hold. Nonetheless, the probabilities favor the stock reaching strong support this coming week and getting into a sideways trend for a couple of months.

SGR is a stock that over the years has shown a propensity for trading sideways over long stretches of time. As such, once the bottom of the likely trading range is reached, the probabilities will favor a rally of consequence.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 28.00, from a previous low weekly close as well as from the 50-week MA. Strong resistance is found up at 30.40 and again at 30.84. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 24.40 from the 200-day MA and decent at 25.93/26.16 from a previous high and previous low close of some consequence. Above that level, resistance is strong at the $30 level. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 22.06 51.04. On a daily closing basis, support is minor to decent at 22.06 and strong down at 20.31. Strong psychological support will also be found at $20.

SGR is presently showing 4 gaps on the way down with the first being between 28.76 and 28.57, the second between 27.05 and 26.97, the third between 26.29 and 26.19, and the last one, seen on Friday, 25.08 and 24.49. Such an array of gaps, in a stock that does not generally generate them, likely means they will all be closed at some point in time, especially since none of the gaps were formed due to a fundamental piece of news. The last gap, though, was likely the most meaningful as it the stock gapped down below the 200-day MA and did not attempt to get above it, closing near the lows of the day and projecting lower numbers this coming week.

At this time, especially since the indexes are under pressure, the probabilities favor follow-through and continued movement downward toward the $20 level. Nonetheless, some decent support is found at 21.46 and the weekly close support is strong at 22.06. As such, it is likely that as the stock approaches these two levels buying will start coming in, likely slowing down, if not stopping, the downward momentum.

As I stated above, this stock has shown a tendency toward sideways trading ranges in the past. The support at $20 is strong and not likely to get broken at this time. As such, the probabilities favor the stock getting into a 2-3 month trading range between $20 and $30. With the open gaps likely to get closed at some point, once the selling stops SGR will work toward them like a magnet, generating the kind of a rally that will take the stock back up near the $30 level. It is likely that an initial trading range between 21.46 and 28.76 will be seen first, before the range expands to $20 to $30.

Purchases of SGR between 21.46 and 21.59 and using a stop loss at 20.04 and having an initial objective of 28.76, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

STP (Friday's closing price - 14.35)

STP is in an industry that is likely to be strongly supported under an Obama administration. As such any strong dips in price, such as what the stock is presently seeing, should be seen as an opportunity to purchase, with the thought of a buy & hold for the long-term.

Over the past 4 months, STP generated a rally from a low of 5.17 to a high of 20.19. Upon reaching the strong psychological resistance at $20, and in conjunction with the correction in the indexes, the stock began a corrective phase that over the past week has gained momentum. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching levels where previous support of consequence is found and where buying should be seen.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 16.45 and strong at 18.37. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 15.63 and then again at 16.16. Above that level, resistance is minor at 17.83 and decent to strong at 18.57. Strong resistance is found at 19.50. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 13.16 and strong at 12.48. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 14.06, decent at 13.70 (from the 200-day MA), and strong at 13.16 from a previous close of consequence, as well as from the 100-day MA. Below that, strong support will be found at 12.48.

After reaching 20.19 and subsequently seeing a successful retest of that level with a rally up to 19.28, STP has seen a strong profit taking drop in price. Nonetheless, the stock is now very close to strong supports with the 200-day MA (at 13.70) and the 100-day MA (at 13.20) close-by. In addition, the daily and weekly close supports at 12.48 and at 13.16 are close by as well. With no fundamental changes having happened over the past few weeks, and in an industry that is likely to thrive under the Obama administration, it seems likely that buying will become aggressive once more at these levels.

With the indexes likely to be under pressure this coming week, as well as the stock under selling pressure itself, the probabilities of STP dropping down to somewhere between the 100 and 200 day MA's is high. The 12.48 level, on both a daily and weekly closing basis (12.35 intra-day), offers an area where strong support is found. To the upside, there is only minor resistance at 16.22 and if broken, rallies up to 17.41 or even 18.22 are likely. As such, the trade offers a good risk/reward ratio as well as a good probability rating.

Purchases of STP between 13.07 and 13.30 and placing a stop loss at 12.25 and having an objective of 18.22 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

AMZN (Friday's closing price - 77.63)

AMZN is a stock that 4 weeks ago attempted to generate a breakout when it closed in a new 18-month weekly closing high, only to see that breakout fail and reverse direction the very next week. A failure-to-follow-through signal was generated with the objective of at least testing the most recent weekly closing low at 73.60, as well as the 100-week MA currently at the same price.

In addition, the monthly chart is showing that a probable high for the year has been made and that a good correction is likely to be seen. Within the context of a "minimal" correction, drops back down to the closest support of any consequence at 73.30 are highly likely. Nonetheless, in looking at the monthly chart, if the stock gets into a full-blown monthly correction, drops all the way down to the 64.47 level could easily be seen over the next couple of months.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 80.89 to 81.62, decent to strong between 83.89 and 84.46, and very strong at 87.56. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent between 77.97 and 78.36, decent at 79.77, decent again at 81.99, and strong at 83.88. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 73.60. On a daily closing basis, support is decent to strong at 75.63, minor at 74.41, and strong at 73.60.

The stock is presently heading lower in conjunction with the weakness in the indexes. In addition, AMZN is showing an inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from Wednesday to Tuesday from 84.92 to 75.41, and the flag being the trading range from Tuesday to Friday between 78.89 and 75.41. A break of the bottom of the flag at 75.41 gives an objective of 69.38.

It must be mentioned that the drop down this week to 75.41 generated a successful retest of the 100-day MA at that level. Nonetheless, if the successful retest was as strong as it looked, the stock should not have stopped at 78.89 but should have run up to the 80.00 level. As such, if the indexes show the expected weakness this week, the probabilities favor that line getting broken. If that happens, drops down to 73.60 will likely occur.

It must be mentioned, though, that if the stock closes out this month below 77.99, pressure will mount, as a small sell signal would be generated. Nonetheless, if the stock closes out the month below 73.33, the probability of a drop down to at least 64.47 will skyrocket, making this trade into a big winner. Either way, the probabilities of a drop down to 73.30-73.60 seem to be high, and that would be a profitable trade.

Sales of AMZN between 78.07 and 78.54 and using a stop loss at 78.99 (mental) and having an objective of 73.60 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

AXP (Friday's closing price - 23.22)

The chart on AXP is offering a short-term trade on the sell side with a very small risk factor and a great risk/reward ratio, as well as a good probability rating. In addition, it must be mentioned that the banking sector of the market also seems to be in a well-defined short-term downtrend that helps increase the probabilities of a successful short trade in this stock as well.

Since May 8th AXP has been in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows and though the stock is nearing levels where some support can be expected to be found, those levels has not yet been reached. With the indexes likely heading lower this coming week, the probabilities of the stock reaching its short-term objectives is high.

On a weekly closing basis, minor resistance is found at 23.31, decent resistance is at 25.16, and major at 2828.40. On a daily closing basis, resistance decent at 23.52, stronger at 24.62, and strong at 26.93 and 28.40. On a weekly closing basis, minor support is found at 22.47 and decent to strong at 18.69. On a daily closing basis, minor support is found at 22.63 and 22.27. Below that level, decent support will be found at the 200-day MA at 21.01, as well as at 19.93 where the 100-day MA is currently located.

At this particular time, this trade is being mentioned as a short-term play looking for some additional weakness this week, based on the indexes heading lower. Drops down to the 200-day MA at 21.02 (closing the gap at 21.30 in the process), or even a further drop to the 100-day MA at 19.93, seem to be the objectives. Nonetheless, this is a trade that if the daily supports get broken, the trade could blossom into a much better trade, as the weekly chart shows no support until 18.67 is reached.

It is important to note that during the last 9 months, the 23.10-23.50 level has been a strong pivot point with a total of 4 previous daily close highs in that area, as well as 5 previous low daily closes as well. As such, with the stock trading below that level right now, it is likely that at this time it is strong resistance. Drops down to 21.02 seem highly likely, but if the indexes do get under strong pressure, a drop down to the 100-day MA, as well as strong psychological support, at $20 could be seen.

Sales of AXP between Friday's closing price of 23.21 and up to 23.52 and using a stop loss at 23.66 and having an objective of 19.93, will offer a risk/reward ratio of 8-1. Even if only the gap at 21.30 is closed and the stock gets down to the 200-day MA at 21.00, the trade still offers a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

Updates 
Updates on Held Stocks
Open Positions and stop loss changes 

NUAN broke below the 50-week MA this week but was not able to confirm the break when it closed above the line and near the highs of the week on Friday. In addition, the stock was able to hold itself at the previous low weekly close at 11.84, thus preventing a sell signal being given on the weekly chart. The stock did accomplish several positive things when the 200-day MA at 10.80 was tested successfully with a drop down to 10.90. In addition, the stock was able to also test successful a very important previous daily high close area at 11.04/11.27, with a close at 11.14. Even though all of these actions can be seen in a positive light, it is impossible at this time to ascertain what the stock will do this coming week. Based on the close near the highs of the week on Friday, the stock should see follow through to the upside with 12.10-12.40 being the first objective. If that happens, the chart will take on a more positive note, though not a strong positive note. Only a rally above 12.78 or a close above 12.52 would accomplish that. On a negative side, the weekly closing chart does not seem to support a double bottom being built at 11.84, and therefore the probabilities favor a lower close next week. Such a close, though, would not only generate a sell signal but also put the stock into a negative chart pattern that could generate moves back down to or below the $10 level. I think Monday will be important for the stock, as Friday's close should generate a rally. If such a rally does not occur and the stock is unable to get above 11.90/12.00 and closes in the red, selling pressure will increase and the recent lows will likely be at least tested, if not broken. Either way, no action (buy or sell) should be started at this time.

AMZN continued its downward move and Friday's close seems to suggest the stock has further downside to come. The stock did test the 100-day MA successfully on Tuesday when it closed right on the line at 75.63 and then rallied the following 2 days to close higher. Nonetheless, the red close on Friday seems to suggest that no further upside is to come and that the probabilities favor a drop back down to the 100-MA this week as well as a possible break of that line. On the weekly chart, the stock also failed to hold itself above some minor supports at 78.05 and 78.30, thus increasing the probabilities of the stock dropping down to the next weekly closing support of any consequence at 74.78. A retest of the recent weekly low close at 73.60 seems to be the next course of action. On the daily chart, though, any close below 75.63 would be a strong negative as it would be a break of the 100-day MA, suggesting that moves down to the $70 could occur. A close above 78.10 would take some of the negativity out of the chart and likely cause a rally back up to the $80 level.

WFC closed on Friday below an important weekly close support level at 23.00. Such a break suggests that the stock could close next week at 21.76, as that is the next weekly close support of consequence. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, if the stock closes below 22.51, the probabilities of an intra-week drop down to 19.87 will increase greatly. There is no support of consequence between those two levels, and if that level is broken, strong selling is likely to be seen. Stops should be lowered to 23.98, nonetheless, should the stock close above the 200-day MA at 23.32 at this time, it is possible that further upside movement could be seen. In simple words, stock should be moving down from here.

TRLG closed below the 19.70 weekly close support and that suggests that further downside is likely. Nonetheless, the close was only by 6 ticks below the support, and that is not a clear break. It is evident, though, that the stock is under strong selling pressure and if there is any follow through to the downside this coming week the stock could break the neckline, of the Head & Shoulders formation, at 18.92 (19.48 on a daily closing basis). If that happens the stock would likely receive strong selling with the gap between 18.00 and 18.37 being the first objective. Drops down to 16.65 (100-day MA) and 15.55 (200-day MA) would then become possible and maybe even probable. Objective of the H&S break, though is 12.90. It is likely the stock will follow whatever the indexes are doing, so keep that in mind. Only a daily close above 20.98 will take any bearishness away from the chart.

BA was able to hold itself above a decent weekly support level at 39.20 but continues to be in a strong weekly downtrend that has not shown any indication that is it coming to an end. The stock did break below the 100-day MA this week and has since confirmed the break with several closes below the line. The stock is likely to follow whatever the indexes do this week. Nonetheless, the $40 level is now considered strong resistance, as such, stops should be brought down to 40.10, locking in some profit. There is no support of consequence on the daily chart until 37.10 is reached. Below that level there is quite a bit of support between 35.44 and 36.48, on a daily closing basis.

 


1) TRLG - Averaged short at 22.815. Stop loss now at 23.00. Stock closed on Thursday at 19.64.

2) WFC - Shorted at 24.94. Stop loss now at 23.94. Stock closed on Thursday at 22.87.

3) BA - Shorted at 40.67. Stop loss now at 40.10. Stock closed on Friday at 39.65.

4) JBL - Covered shorts at 6.80. Averaged short at 8.00. Profit on the trade of $360 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.

5) AMZN - shorted at 78.50. Stop loss at 78.99. Stock closed on Friday at 77.63.

6) CAT - Shorted at 31.79. Covered short at 30.65. Profit on the trade of $114 per 100 shares minus commissions.

7) AXP - Shorted at 22.58. Covered short at 23.14. Loss on the trade of $56 per 100 shares plus commissions.

8) AMZN - Covered short at 78.03. Shorted at 83.97. Profit on the trade of $594 per 100 shares minus commissions.

9) PDCO - Liquidated at 21.66. Purchased at 21.07. Profit on the trade of $59 per 100 shares minus commissions.

10) AMZN - Purchased at 76.92. Liquidated at 76.43. Loss on the trade of $49 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.


 


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