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Issue #92 
October 05, 2008 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| End in Sight?
DOW Friday close at 10325
After a week of much uncertainty and even greater volatility, the DOW closed out the week on its lows. Even though Congress passed the bailout bill that was supposed to buoy the market, the index fell. The response to the news that $700 billion dollars would be used to bailout financial institutions was not sufficient to rally a market that has been ravaged by bad news, high unemployment, financial institution bankruptcies, falling earnings, and deflation. The likelihood of follow through on Monday to the downside is high and it seems now highly likely that the major psychological level of 10,000 will be seen next week.
It is evident that buyers are staying away from the market in droves. The "I am on the sidelines and not buying anything" statement seems to be the main cry heard on the street right now. This is no longer about a market that is going lower by bulls liquidating long positions but more about waiting to see how much lower the bears can push before some strong buying comes in.
The DOW is reaching levels of major psychological support as well as areas where the market has showed strong buying in the past. In addition, a smattering of new buying is likely to start coming in since fears of a systemic failure of the financial community have been allayed, due to the passage of the bailout bill.
In addition, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) saw a high this past week of 48.40. In the past 13 years there have only been 4 other occasions where the VIX has gone above 48.00 (with 49.53 having been the highest in the last 13 years). Each an every time, within a week of seeing that number, the DOW generated the beginning of a strong rally.
On the weekly closing chart, very strong support will be found between 9758 and 9862. Strong psychological support will be found at the 10,000 level, as well as from three previous closes, some dating back to 1999, between 9967 and 10088. There is also some decent support between 10192 and 10215. On a weekly closing basis, resistance will now be decent at 10629 and stronger at 10941. On a daily closing basis, resistance will now be very strong at 10851.
It is important to note that the DOW started a 5-year up-trend in October 2002 from a low of 7197 and hit its high of 14198 in October 2007. With the only exception being last year, the month of October has been a month in which strong rallies have occurred each and every year since 1997. It is also important to note that the 61.8% retracement number from Fibonnacci, using the high and low of that 5-year rally, will be reached if the DOW gets down to 9871 intra-day. Using the weekly closing prices, the same 61.8% would put the DOW on a close next week at 10035.
It is evident from all the above-mentioned facts, that the DOW is nearing levels that will not only be strongly defended but from which rallies can occur. In looking at the long-term weekly and monthly charts, a case can be made for a trading range between 10,000 to 12,000 to be seen over the next 12 months.
It is likely, based on the weak close on Friday, that the DOW will be under pressure the first part of the week. With the failure of the passage of the bill on Friday to prop up the index, drops down to the 10,000 level are highly likely on Monday and/or Tuesday. Drops down to the 9871 level (Fibonnacci number) are certainly possible. Keep in mind that the 61.8% Fibonnacci number is highly respected and followed by many long-term traders. It should stimulate some new buying at the same time that a major psychological support level is reached. Such a combination could be the catalyst needed to turn the market around.
In addition, the index is very oversold and most investors are out of the market and waiting to buy. If the index does not show more weakness than outlined above, the likelihood of a strong turn around after the initial thrust down to the 10,000 level is high.
Based on this past week's trading range, possible trading range for the week is 9871 to 10701.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 1947
The NASDAQ reached and surpassed a major previous as well as psychological support level when it broke and closed below the 2200 level on Friday. The index took it on the chin, as it dropped much more, percentage-wise, than all the other indexes. With an 11.1% drop in value, compared to the DOW dropping 7.5% and the SPX dropping 9.5%, it was evident that investors abandoned the NASDAQ stocks over any other.
Nonetheless, like with the DOW, the NASDAQ is reaching levels of support that should offer some strong buying. In addition, like with the DOW, the 61.8% Fibonnacci number is close to being reached. A drop down to 1844, on a weekly closing basis, or 1770 on an intra-day basis, will accomplish that equation.
On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 1904/1908 (1890 intra-day) and stronger down at 1757 (1751 intra-day). On a weekly closing basis, resistance is now decent at 2020/2025, minor at 2050, and very strong at 2175. On a daily closing basis, there will be minor resistance at 1984 and very strong resistance at 20.92.
The type of break seen in the NASDAQ this past week was not only decisive but one that could carry strong follow through this coming week. With over a 200 point trading range between the high and the low and then closing on the low, a drop down to the 1740/1750 level this coming week is possible. Below 1877 intra-day (1902 on a daily closing basis) there is no evident support until the index reaches down to 1751. It is evident that a break of the 1877/1890 level (1902-1908 on a daily closing basis) will generate that kind of a drop. With the NASDAQ being the primary index being sold, as well as the index with the closest nearby support level, it is the one that should be watched closely on Monday for clues as to how low all the other indexes may go. In addition, the support level at 1900 is of sufficient strength as to give a good indication as to the strength, or lack thereof, of the indexes for the coming week.
It is evident that the NASDAQ does not have the kind of psychological as well as long term-support at these levels like the DOW does at 10,000. Nonetheless, the Fibonnacci number does have the same importance and therefore that number should be closely monitored. On an intra-day basis the 61.8% correction would be at 1778 and on a weekly closing basis at 1844.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1099
The SPX closed out the week in a new 4-year weekly closing low and is rapidly approaching the next strong level of support from 2004 at 1089-1096. In addition, the index is reaching a level of intra-week support from 2001 at 1081 of major consequence. That particular low generated a rally of 235 points over a period of 2 months.
One additional factor that will be strongly in play is the Fibonnacci 61.8% retracement number. The 61.8% retracement can be measured using the October 7th 2002 low at 768 and the October 8th 2007 high at 1576 and comes out to be 1076. That number is now within the index's sight and likely to be reached next week. When using both the strong intra-week low support from 2001 of 1081 and the Fibonnacci number at 1076, you get a level of support that is likely to be strongly looked at and respected. Add to that the support that should be expected for the financial community in the form of the passed bill that will give monetary support to failed financial institutions and you get a strong reason for the buyers to come out of the woodwork this coming week.
Support is very strong at 1064 from a major weekly closing low made in August 2004. That low was the first and strongest correction low made after the index began its major run up from the 768 level. On an intra-week basis, support is strong at 1081 from a major low seen back in 2001. On a daily closing basis and also from 2004, support is major at 1064 and strong down at 1084. On a weekly closing basis, resistance will start at 1157/1166 (strong), 1212 (minor), 1222 (minor) and 1243 (strong). On a daily closing basis, resistance will be decent at 1134, strong at 1157, and very strong at 1222/1228.
It seems highly likely that the SPX will be reaching levels of support this week that will generate strong buying interest. The Fibonnacci 61.8% retracement number is rarely seen but is widely followed by "long-term" investors. With the index closing within 24 points of that number it likely means that whatever weakness will be generated this week from the negative reaction to the passage of the bailout bill should be dissipated very soon. Also keep in mind that the SPX is often the leader in the charts of all the indexes and therefore more likely to react to the support and Fibonnacci number than any of the other indexes.
It was surprising that after the bill was passed by Congress on Friday that the SPX sold off. The bill itself is most beneficial to the financial community and should have supported the SPX over all the other indexes. Nonetheless, the old adage of "buying the rumor and selling the fact" came into play and generated panic selling late in the day due to the fragile nature of the market at this time. It is highly unlikely that much further selling will be seen after the chart picture is evaluated and the change of fundamentals are keyed in.
Due to the weakness seen late Friday, it is likely that further weakness will be seen the first part of the week. It is also likely that the DOW will see the 10,000 level this coming week as that is a major psychological level that is not likely to go away untested. It is possible that on Monday the market may open substantially lower.
I do want to mention that the 61.8% Fibonnacci retracement number is rarely used as that kind of a correction is not often seen in the indexes or in stocks. Nonetheless, it is a number that is highly respected by all technical traders. With the indexes highly oversold, a bailout bill passed, a huge amount of money on the sidelines waiting to pounce on the market once a low has been established, and a highly respected technical number in play, the opportunity this coming week could be a strong one.
It is important to realize that even if a bottom is found, rallies at first will be tentative and will be met with selling. Nonetheless, if a true bottom is found, whatever low is made this week, will not likely be broken thereafter.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
This week is all about purchases as the short side of the market is very limited, in my opinion. Purchases this week will only have "mental" stop losses, as further downside is likely to be very limited and I don't want to get stopped out unless the market is breaking down totally. Most of the mentions will be in stocks with longer term potential and therefore risk/reward ratios should be high. The mentions this week will also be placed in order of probability factors and reward ratios.
TRA (Friday close at 21.75)
TRA is a stock that started a major move up in price in July 2006 from a low of 5.93 and topped out in July of this year at 57.64. During the past 10 weeks the stock has taken a strong fall because the price of commodities have come down, and not because of any fundamental problems the company has. The stock just last week got near a major psychological support at $20 and also near the 200-week MA as well as strong previous weekly close support.
TRA is a very volatile stock that on September 26th, when the stock was trading at $40, received a downgrade from CitiGroup that generated strong selling and almost a 50% drop in price in just 6 days. CitiGroup brought down its projections on the stock from $60 down to $44. The reaction downward was acerbated by a falling stock market as well as the general volatility of the stock itself. Nonetheless, TRA is reaching levels of support where strong buying will likely appear and presents an opportunity for fast and sharp profits over the next couple of weeks.
On a weekly closing basis, support is major at 20.67 from a strong correction low seen in Aug07. Below that, support is also strong at 19.35, from the 200-week MA, and some decent support down at 17.58 from a previous weekly closing low prior to the breakout above the $20 level. On a psychological basis, support is strong around the $20 level. From Mar07 to Aug07, the $20 level acted as a major pivot point as well as support. On a daily closing basis, support is very strong at 19.22. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance of consequence until the 28.80 level is reached. On a daily closing basis, there is very minor resistance up at 25.97 and then strong at 29.25.
TRA is a stock that has come down strongly over the past 10 days on two things only, a downgrade by CitiGroup from $60 down to $44 as well as from falling commodity prices. In addition, a dropping stock market and strong volatility in this stock acerbated the drop. Nonetheless, at the $20 level strong buying is likely to be seen and with no resistance of consequence until the $29 level is reached, the stock offers a great risk/reward ratio with high probability of success.
Purchases of TRA between 19.22 and 20.00 and using a mental stop loss at 18.72 and having an objective a rally up to the 29.20 level, offers a risk/reward ratio of almost 8-1.
My rating on the trade is an 8.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
BA (Friday close at 53.83)
BA closed this past week above a previous and major weekly closing support at 53.75 from back in 2001. In addition, it is getting close to a major level of psychological support at $50 where there are also several previous daily closes and weekly intra-week lows at that price. In addition, BA was only one of a handful of stocks that were able to close in the green on Friday, thus signaling that the stock is nearing levels where support is beginning to appear.
From a fundamental basis, BA has a full slate of signed contracts for the next 5 years assuring the company of strong continued income. In addition, its new fuel-efficient planes will continue to be in demand for years to come as oil supplies are expected to start declining by 2012.
On a weekly closing basis, support is major at 53.75 and very strong down at 49.51-49.92. On an intra-week basis, support is major between 49.50 and 49.70. On a daily closing basis, support is very strong at 48.96 and again at 49.92. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor resistance at 54.70/55.26 and then nothing of consequence until a minor resistance is found at 59.21. Above that there is no resistance of consequence on the weekly closing chart until the $68-$70 level is reached.
It is highly likely that if the indexes are under pressure at the beginning of the week that BA could see a drop down to the $50 level. Nonetheless, the stock did close this past week near a major support at 53.75 and it is likely that by next Friday, if the indexes do stage a rally, that the stock would generate a close above this level. Either way, drops down near the $50 should be aggressively bought, for the chart support reasons mentioned above.
In addition, the stock topped out in July of last year at 107.00 and then suffered a drop down to 71.87, a drop of $35.13. The stock then corrected back up to 87.05 and is now close to seeing the same $35 drop in price that is suffered the first time around. This is another sign that the stock is near a level where a strong correction is likely to occur.
BA normally trades in ranges between $2.50 and $3.50 per day and with the close on Friday at 53.83, if the indexes are weak on Monday, it could put the stock down near the $50 level.
Purchases of BA between 49.70 and 50.30 and using a mental stop loss at 48.50 and having an objective of at least a rally up to the 59.20 level will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 6-1. A rally back up to the $68 level could also easily happen, thus increasing strongly the risk/reward ratio. This is a stock, though, that on a weekly closing basis, has accomplished it's downside objective. It may be necessary to step up above the $50 level to purchase the stock if the indexes fulfill their downside objectives and the stock is trading above $50 but below 53.75.
My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
AXP (Friday close at 30.87)
AXP is a financial company that has dropped over 50% in value over the 15 months even though it is not a company that has any bad debt such as sub-prime mortgages. The stock should receive some benefit from the bailout package passage, as lending should be stimulated once again. In addition, the stock is reaching levels of great support where it should find renewed buying interest.
In looking at the monthly chart of AXP and going back 16 years, the stock maintains itself in an upward trending channel with the bottom of the channel coming in around the $30 level. In addition, from 1998 through 2003, the $30 level acted as a major pivot point and support area, adding fuel to the belief that the stock will have problems getting much below that price.
On a monthly closing basis, the 31.50 level is major support as that is where the 200-month MA is currently located. On a weekly closing basis, support is very strong between 28.95 and 29.42. On an intra-week basis, support is strong at 29.76-29.50. On a weekly closing basis, there is some minor resistance at 34.58 and major resistance is found up at 38.68 and again at 40.40.
One of the strongest indicators that a possible major bottom is being created is in the monthly closing chart where the 200-month MA currently is located at 31.30. In addition, AXP is in an up-trend on the monthly chart and there seems to be no fundamental reason to believe the stock will be breaking below such a long-term up-trend.
The AXP chart shows a high probability of seeing a stock that will trade for the next few months between a low of $29 and a high of $39. With the probability that the indexes will be reaching their mid-term lows over the next week, it is likely that AXP will be doing the same as there is no fundamental reason at this time to believe this stock has strong reasons to go much lower in price.
Purchases of AXP between 29.50 and 29.76 and using a mental stop loss at 28.37 and having an objective of 38.68 will offer better than an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
WDC (Friday close at 18.80)
WDC is one of the top 4 manufacturers of disk drives in the world. In Dec05, the stock broke out of a 6-year sideways trend when it went above 16.10 level. The stock then proceeded to rally up to the $40 level over the next 17 months. Since then the stock has been correcting down and just this past week got back down to levels of support of consequence. In addition, there are strong rumors that one of its main competitors, Fujitsu, is interested is selling its hard disk drive subsidiary to WDC, and that would mean a stronger company with less competition in the marketplace.
WDC is back near levels where major support was previous found and with the possibility of a fundamental upgrade to the company, the recent drop in price seems to be a good opportunity to pick up shares at a bargain basement price.
On a weekly closing basis, support is major at 16.10 (previous breakout high weekly close as well as previous low weekly close re-test). There is also some strong support at 16.77 and decent support at 18.80. On a daily closing basis, support is decent between 18.67 and 18.82, decent again at 17.43, strong at 17.02 and major at 16.05. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 20.30 from the 200-week MA, strong at 21.70, and major at 24.18. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong at 21.40 and major at 24.18.
It seems likely that WDC will break down a bit more this week with the indexes under pressure, nonetheless, the 18.32 level, on an intra-day basis, is a support level that seems unlikely to break. If it does, a drop down to the mid 17's would likely happen. It is unlikely the stock will get down to the major support at $16.
With an oversold condition, possible positive fundamental changes, and a stock at major 10 year support, WDC looks like an attractive purchase.
Purchases of WDC between 18.32 and 18.50 and placing a hard stop loss at 18.20 and having an objective of 21.40 will offer a risk/reward ratio of over 8-1. If the 18.32 level gets taken out on Monday morning, the purchases of WDC should be made around the 17.50 level placing a stop loss at 16.56 and using the same objective of 21.40 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 4-1. The 21.40 level objective is only a short-term objective. Mid-term objective would be 24.18.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
STP (Friday closing price 33.47)
STP broke down below the $30 level on Thursday when the stock failed to get above the 35.60 level after testing successfully the $32 level just a few days before. Stops were hit below $32 and the momentum carried the stock down to close the gap at 30.70. Nonetheless, it is likely that the break of support was caused by momentum trading, in conjunction with the indexes, than by negative fundamentals in the stock.
On Friday STP was one of a few stocks that closed strongly in the green suggesting the stock has found strong support at the $30 level. In addition, the drop down to $30 fulfilled a need on the chart for closure of the open gap as well as a successful re-test of the psychological support at that price.
On a weekly closing basis, support is major at 30.70 and strong at 33.01. On a daily closing basis, support is major at 29.40, decent at 31.67 and strong at 32.57/32.65. On a weekly closing basis, there is some minor resistance at 36.24, strong resistance between 38.55 and 39.53, and strong again at 43.16 to 43.55. On a daily closing basis, there is minor resistance at 36.43 and at 37.69, decent at 39.53, and major up at 43.55.
With the reversal type action on Friday, in spite of a disappointing drop in the indexes, STP seems to be suggesting that a bottom has been established and that after a re-test of the lows is seen, that rallies back up near the $40 level will occur.
The support between 31.57 and 32.10 is likely to be tested this week when the indexes fall down to their downside objectives. Such a drop would be a good time to purchase.
Purchases of STP between 31.57 and 32.10 and using a stop loss of 29.59 and having an objective of 39.53 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Open Positions and stop loss changes
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| Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were substacted.
Status of account for 2008, as of 8/31 Profit of $12773 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NUAN (short) $183 CAT (short) $708 BA (short) $281 MMC (short) $9 ELON (long) $143 VLO (long) $81 FCEL (long) $1 ' TRA (long) $320 NUAN (long) $103 RIO (long) $302 DIA (long) $106 IR (short) $116 T (short) $17 AMZN (short) $65 Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $2505 Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
JBL (long) $78
RIO (long) $582 KGC (long) $160 HRB (short) $42 K (short) $59 AXP (short) $478 NUAN (long) $41 PBCT (short) $52 SGR (long) $171 AA (long) $1369 DELL (long) $127 RX (long) $67 WDC (long) $175 IGT (long) $141 JBL (long) $1235 MMM (short) $68 BA (short) $41 WDC (long) $185 ELON (long) $298 IGT (long) $103 RIO (long) $212 OSK (long) $130 SGR (long) $133 RIO (long) $31 BA (long) $20 RIO (long) $20 AMZN (short) $93 Total Loss for September, per 100 shares, including commissions $6155 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30
KGC (long) $5
Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30Total $5
NUAN (long) $392
Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions. Total $392
Loss of $4037
Status of account/portfolio for 2008, as of 9/30Profit of $8736 using 100 shares traded per mention.
NUAN received some positive fundamentals news this past week with higher earnings guidance for the next quarter, The news generated a rally in which a previous intra-day high was broken and a mini buy signal was given (no buy signal was given on the daily closing chart, though). Nonetheless, the stock fell later on in the week due to the heaviness of the general market. Nonetheless, the stock had an inside week (lower highs and higher lows than last week) and that seems to suggest that the previous low at 12.04 is likely to hold up even if the indexes show weakness this coming week. On a daily closing basis, the low has been 12.19 and a re-test of that low is possible. An intra-day drop down to the 12.30 level seems to be likely. Any close above 14.09 would be a buy signal of consequence. Just in case the stock breaks below the 12.04 level seen two weeks ago, it must be mentioned that the 200-week MA is currently at 11.70 and it is highly unlikely that level will be broken.
AA closed out the week at a major weekly closing support level between 19.13 and 19.30. That level, on a weekly closing basis, has been major support for the last 9 years. Nonetheless, it is important to note that on an intra-week basis, the stock did get down as low as 17.62 and 18.63 during the period of time that the weekly closing lows were being set. It is also important to note that the last 3 "major" lows (23.12 in 2000, 17.62 in 2002, and 22.28 in 2005) were all made in the "first week of October". Such a fact increases the probability that either the low has been set for the year already or will be set no later than this coming week. Under this scenario, a rally up to the 26.37 should occur over the next two weeks. Drops below 17.62 would be negative. A weekly close next Friday above this Friday's low at 19.24 will be a signal that the stock has turned the corner. Additional purchases of this stock should be considered. ELON two weeks ago closed on a new 9-month high and though no change of fundamentals occurred, the stock closed this past Friday on new 16-month lows. The failure-to-follow-through signal that was given after the stock was unable to head higher after the positive close, brought in strong "rubber band" selling where the opposite occurred. Such a situation is not rare. There is decent support, on a weekly closing basis, at 9.40-9.44 (9.00 on an intra-day basis). Under this scenario, drops down to the 9.00 level are possible, if the indexes make new lows this week. Nonetheless, it is likely that the stock will begin to rally before the end of the week and a close on Friday above the previous weekly low close at 10.20 is likely. Resistance will now be strong at 12.55 (20-week MA) up to 13.33 (previous weekly close of some consequence). Any daily close above 10.50 will be a signal the lows have been found and that a rally is in the making. Should that happen, there is little resistance until the 12.55 level is reached. Drops below 9.00 will be considered negative. RIO has some support at 15.57 and then again at 14.55. The 15.57 level is much more important as it is a previous intra-day low, whereas the 14.55 is simply an important previous high that held up for many months. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the close below 16.35 this past week puts the stock on the defensive and creates a week in which the stock needs to show some ability to rally, and hold the rally. If the stock fails to accomplish that, it will likely continue downward toward the next major support level at $10. At this time there is no compelling reason to be aggressive in purchasing the stock but if the stock is able to close out the week above the 200-week MA at 18.20 then it can be purchased with more "gusto". If the stock is able to hold itself above this week's low of 15.42 it will be considered a positive. A break below 15.42 will put more pressure on the stock. No major support level is found near-by. The stock has an open gap on the daily and weekly chart between 20.26 and 19.40. Should the stock hold above the 15.42 level this week, that gap should be filled. KGC seems to be in a weekly closing trading range between 13.78 and 16.60. A break above either of these levels, on a weekly closing basis, will likely generate some follow through of consequence. A weekly close above 16.60 would likely take the stock up to the $20 level and a weekly close below 13.78 would like take the stock down to at least 12.60 with the possibility of a move down to 11.30. It seems evident that the $15 level is a strong pivot point for the stock and therefore staying above or below that level will increase the probabilities in that direction. Based on the recent move up this past week, the probabilities are slightly in favor of upside movement. GE had a very negative close this past week when the stock closed out the week below the 22.48 level which was the lowest weekly closing low since 1997. At this time, the stock does not have a major level that can be depended upon to work as strong support. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, the stock does show two major lows made in October 2002 at 21.30 and 21.40 that should offer "some" support. A break below that level intra-day would be worrisome and would likely lead to a test of the psychological support at $20. The support seen over the last 2 weeks at 22.19 (23.10 on a daily closing basis) was broken this past week, thus weakening the chart. It is likely the stock will be under pressure at the beginning of the week due to the pressure that the indexes will also be receiving. No reason at this time to be aggressive with the stock. Nonetheless, if there is a turn around, the stock shows no resistance of consequence on the weekly chart until 26.30 is reached. On the daily chart, resistance will be strong at 25.50. At this time I am looking more for a point to liquidate the longs than at a point to purchase more. A lot of stocks look much better to purchase at this time. FCEL has major weekly closing support at 5.10 dating all the way back to 2003 as a major weekly closing low in place for the last 9 years. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, the stock could get down as low as 4.54 and still show the support level as holding. On a short-term basis, though, the stock had a daily closing low on Monday at 5.20 and it is likely that level will not be broken as the stock has been holding firm even when the stock indexes have been under pressure. If the indexes do break down some more this week, as anticipated, and the stock manages to maintain a daily close above 5.20, adding positions should be considered. Only a close on Friday below 5.10 would be negative.
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1) IR - Shorted at 31.39. Covered short at 30.01. Profit on the trade of $138 per 100 shares minus commissions.
2) WDC - Liquidated at 20.10. Purchased at 22.81. Loss on the trade of $271 per 100 shares plus commissions.
3) ELON - Liquidated at 11.87. Purchased at 14.71. Loss on the trade of $284 per 100 shares plus commissions.
4) T - Shorted at 29.85. Covered short at 29.54. Profit on the trade of $31 per 100 shares minus commissions.
5) IGT - Liquidated at 16.87. Purchased at 17.76. Loss on the trade of $89 per 100 shares plus commissions.
6) RIO - Purchased at 18.35. Averaged long at 19.805. Liquidated at 18.18. Loss on the trade of $325 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
7) BA - Purchased at 55.60. Liquidated at 55.54. Loss on the trade of $6 per 100 shares plus commissions.
8) KGC - Purchased at 16.45 and 15.76. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.18.
9) AA - Liquidated at 22.83. Averaged long at 27.30. Loss on the trade of $1341 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.
10) RIO - Purchased at 17.02. Liquidated at 16.96. Loss on the trade of $6 per 100 shares plus commissions.
11) IR - Shorted at 29.58. Covered short at 29.66. Loss on the trade of $8 per 100 shares plus commissions.
12) AMZN - Shorted at 68.35 and again at 69.02. Averaged short at 68.685. Covered short at 68.36. Profit on the trade of $65 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.
13) AMZN - Shorted at 71.92. Covered short at 72.85. Loss on the trade of $93 per 100 shares plus commissions.
14) AMZN - Shorted at 71.87. Covered short at 69.38. Profit on the trade of $259 per 100 shares minus commissions.
15) AMZN - Shorted at 68.90. Covered short at 65.60. Profit on the trade of $330 per 100 shares minus commissions.
16) RIO - Purchased at 17.00. Liquidated at 16.40. Loss on the trade of $60 per 100 shares plus commissions.
17) RIO - Purchased at 17.00. No stoop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.77.
18) ELON - Purchased at 9.70. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.57.
19) FCEL - Purchased at 5.52. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.39.
20) AA - Purchased at 19.29. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.24.
21) KGC - Purchased at 14.62. Liquidated at 14.18. Loss on the trade of $44 per 100 shares plus commissions.
22) IGT - Purchased at 16.19. Liquidated at 15.55. Loss on the trade of $64 per 100 shares plus commissions.
23) GE - Purchased at 22.12. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.57.
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Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. A must have for chart aficionados! |
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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