For the next 6 weeks, only short-term plays will be available. This coming week, it is likely that those stocks that have not yet re-tested their recent lows will do so. Every mention this week will be a sale.

VLO (Friday close at 19.17)

VLO is a stock that seems to be in a bottoming-out process but the stock has left an open gap between 17.02 and 17.50 that seems to be beacon for the bears. In addition, the stock has been trading around an important psychological level at $20 and the stock has not yet been able to establish a daily or weekly close above that level, though on a couple of occasions this past week the stock did trade above $20.

VLO is a relatively volatile stock that has been following the indexes as of late. If the expected rally in the indexes occurs on Monday or Tuesday, it is likely the stock will rally up to levels where the resistance is strong and the risk/reward ratio on the trade is good. The stock has not yet been able to give any kind of a buy signal on the charts and therefore is a perfect candidate for a short-term sale.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is very strong at 20.58, as that has been the high close for the last 7 week. On a daily closing basis, resistance is major at 21.90 from a double top at that price. Resistance is also decent at 20.11. On an intra-day basis, resistance is strong between 20.58 and 21.00 and strong again at 22.10. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 16.96 and at 16.36 and major at 15.96. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 18.35, and then again at 17.52. Support is strong at 16.20 and major at 14.05. On an intra-day basis, support will be found at the gap area at 17.50 but if closed the next support is 16.70/16.98. Strong intra-day support will be found at 15.76.

It seems highly likely that VLO will attempt one more rally above the $20 area this coming week, especially if the indexes rally as expected on Monday or Tuesday. Rallies up to 20.58-21.00 could be seen, with an remote possibility of a rally up to the 22.00 level. Nonetheless, if the indexes do see some selling coming in toward the latter part of the week, it is likely that the stock will drop as well.

With the open gap down at 17.02 being a draw for the bears, drops down to that level are highly probable if the rally fails. In addition, on the weekly charts, a second re-test of the lows is likely and drops down to the 15.56 level could occur under that scenario.

Sales of VLO between at 20.25 and 21.00 and using a stop loss at 21.50 and having an objective of 15.56 will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).

JNPR (Friday close at 17.46)

JNPR is yet another stock that made new 2-year lows three weeks ago but has not yet had a re-test of the lows on the weekly chart. In addition, the stock has left an open gap between 14.92 and 15.03 that will work as a magnet once the stock has shown a further inability to rally. The $15 level must be considered a strong psychological support, but since that level was broken intra-week a couple of weeks ago (a drop down to 13.29), it is very likely that the stock will need to test that level again before a lasting rally occurs.

This past week JNPR broke above a previous intra-day high of some consequence at 16.95, as well as above the 50-day MA at 17.07. Nonetheless, the breakout did not generate enough buying to take the stock up to the next resistance of consequence between 18.87/19.45. Such a failure seems to suggest that the buying is not very strong and that it will not be going up any further without help from the indexes. With the indexes likely to generate a small and limited rally on Monday/Tuesday but then drop down later on in the week, It is likely that JNPR will be doing much of the same.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is now decent at 17.38 and then strong between 17.99 and 18.20. Above that level resistance is very strong up at 18.74. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at this week's closing high of 17.94, and then very strong up between 18.76/18.96. Major resistance is up at 19.98. On an intra-day and intra-week basis, resistance is decent between 17.87 and 18.40 and then very strong at 19.25. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 14.91 and major at 12.20. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 15.58 and decent at 15.15/15.26. Strong support is found at 13.84. On an intra-day basis, support is strong at 15.15 and then minor at 14.20.

JNPR is not a stock that is likely to rally without help from the stock indexes and the gap down at 14.92 will be a magnet for the bears if the stock starts to slip. It is evident that even if the stock has bottomed out and is looking to generate a rally, that a re-test of the $15 is likely to occur.

Playing this stock at this time, though, will require thinking on ones feet. Based on the action this past week, it is unlikely that the stock will break above the week's high at 18.40 and it's likely that only a high of 17.87 will be seen. Nonetheless, if the 18.40 level gets broken, then a rally up to 19.25 would be highly likely.

Sales of JNPR at 17.85 and placing a stop loss at 18.50 and having an objective of 14.20/14.92 will offer a risk/reward ratio of over 4-1. If stopped out, the stock should be re-sold between 19.20 and 19.25 using a stop loss at 20.20, and having the same 14.20/14.92 objective. Under such a scenario the risk/reward ratio would also be 4-1. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).

AMZN (Friday close at 51.25)

AMZN has generated a strong short-covering rally over the past 3 weeks from its 2-year low at 34.68. Nonetheless, the stock is now reaching levels of strong resistance that go back all the way to 2004. In addition, this past week the stock tested the 200-week MA it broke below 9 weeks ago, and without some strong help from the indexes, it is highly unlikely that the stock will be able to establish itself above that line. It is also important to note that the stock has not yet had any re-test of the lows on the weekly chart. Without a successful re-test of the lows, it is unlikely the stock will be able to go much further to the upside.

AMZN did have a classic reversal day on Friday with lower lows, higher highs, and a close above the previous day's high. It is highly likely that follow through will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the high of the week (54.48) and where the 200-week MA is currently at (53.70), will offer stiff resistance and therefore a short trade will have a clearly defined and small risk factor as well as a great reward ratio.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 52.59 and major at 57.11/57.29. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 51.41 and decent at 52.97. Major resistance is found between 57.24 and 58.45. On an intra-day basis, resistance is strong at 54.48 and the nothing until 58.73. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 41.17/41.70 and major at 37.87. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 48.25/48.96 and then nothing until some minor support at 41.56. Support is then strong at 40.56 and major down at 35.03. On an intra-day basis, other than the low seen on Friday at 47.52, there is no support until strong support is found down at 43.31 (two previous intra-day lows as well as the 20-day MA).

It is evident that AMZN, after hitting the 34.68 low, has been on a tear as of late. The recent up-trend has been strong and constant. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching levels where strong selling will start to be seen. Like with JNPR this stock will also require thinking on one's feet. Based on the reversal day on Friday, it is likely that follow through to the upside will be seen this coming week. Nonetheless, the high made this week at 54.48 will offer stiff resistance and could/should hold. If it doesn't, the stock will generate a fast rally up to the next resistance level of consequence at 58.73, where a short position should be again instituted.

AMZN has not had any kind of a weekly re-test of the lows and after such a strong break during the past few months, it seems highly unlikely that rallies will continue without such a re-test. At this time, the price levels seen in the stock offer great risk/reward ratios with high probability numbers as well.

Sales of AMZN between 52.95 and 53.36 and using a stop loss at 54.58 and having an objective of 43.31, will offer a risk/reward ratio of 6-1. If stopped out, sales should again be made between 56.76 and 57.23 using a stop loss at 58.93 and having the same objective. Under such a scenario the risk/reward ratio would be the same 6-1.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).

ITG (Friday close at 18.71)

ITG is yet another stock that has left an open gap below and has not re-tested the lows on the weekly chart. In addition, the stock has reached a level of strong resistance that is both psychological and goes all the way back to 2003.

On both Thursday and Friday, the stock was able to get above the 50-day MA intra-day but by the end of each day, the stock closed below the line. In addition, on Friday the stock showed weakness throughout the day in spite of the strong late rally by the indexes.

It is important to note that in the last recession in 2002, ITG dropped from a high 54.41 down to a low, one year later, at 10.88. The stock then got into a trading range for the next 2 years between a high of 21.38 and a low of 12.01. This past year the stock has already seen a drop from a high of 53.35 seen back in April to a low of 13.00 seen in November. The recent rally took the stock back up to a high of 20.74 and right into the resistance level that was so strong in 2003/2005.

On a weekly closing basis, support is very strong at 14.25. There is no other support on the weekly chart. On a daily closing basis, support is very decent at 18.20 and then nothing until 14.82 where the support is a bit stronger. Major support is down at 13.94. On an intra-day basis, there is decent support at 17.89 and then nothing until the 20-day MA at 16.34. Below that there is some minor support at 15.35 and then again at 14.75. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 19.35 and very strong between 20.22 and 20.43. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong at 20.05 (most recent high daily close as well as 50-day MA). Above that, there is decent resistance between 21.89 and 22.12. On an intra-day basis, there is strong resistance between 20.55 and 21.02.

If the stock fails to establish a 'beachhead" above the $20 level, there is still an open gap between 14.43 and 14.51 that will become a magnet once the stock starts heading lower again. The 20-day MA is currently around 16.73 and that may hold the stock up for a day or two. Nonetheless, in sideways markets the 20-day MA is often broken on both sides.

The most important thing is that the stock has shown major resistance around the $20 level for many years, and on Friday the stock was unable to generate any kind of a strong rally in spite of the strong indexes. This seems to be a sign that the stock has reached its upside objective and is ready to move down. In addition, the recent low made at $13 is not necessarily safe, even though it does seem that the marketplace may have found a bottom. It is important to note that back in 2003-2005, the stock traded down to the $12 level. It is possible it could occur again this time.

Sales of ITG between 19.70 and 20.00 and placing a stop loss at 21.12 and having an objective of 14.43, will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).