Issue #136
August 16, 2009
 The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation 


Indexes Trying to Correct but Buying Dips Continues!

DOW Friday close at 9321

The upward momentum in the DOW came to a halt this past week when it was unable to make a new 11-month high in spite of positive comments from the Fed at the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. In addition, the index for the first time in 5 weeks failed to generate new intra-week highs and closed lower than the previous week's close. The action seen could be signaling that a temporary high has been set and that the normal August-October correction phase could be at its onset.

Nonetheless, in spite of these possible negative signs, the bears have been unable to make any inroads to the downside and the DOW remains close to its previous high and with the constant threat that any new positive news will generate a new rally.

On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance until the 100-week MA currently at 10673 is reached. On an intra-week basis, though, there is a previous high made the week of November 4th at 9654 that does offer some resistance. On a daily closing basis, there is decent resistance at 9388 and then stronger at 9625 (highest daily close since October 6th). On a weekly closing basis, minor support will be found at the 50-week MA currently at 8680. Below that level, very minor support around 8500, decent support at 8296, and strong support at 8147. On a daily closing basis, there is decent support at 9241/9256 and minor at 9071. Decent support is found around 7937 but below that there is no support until the 50-day MA is reached down around 8700.

With the fact that 8 out of the last 12 years the DOW has seen a strong correction happen between August and October, the buyers tempered their buying interest this past week and the index seems to have come to a standstill on its upward momentum. Nonetheless, the bears have been totally unable to generate any kind of decisive signal that the index is in fact heading lower, even for a small corrective phase. As such, the DOW remains in a state where any further positive news will generate a new round of buying.

So far, for the month of August, the DOW has not been able to generate any further upside. On August 4th, 9 trading days ago, the index closed at 9320 and on Friday the close was 9321. It is evident, then, that in order to move higher the index needs further positive news. The economic news due out this week is unlikely to be of great assistance to either the bulls or the bears, as such the probabilities favor the bears if only because the index is presently in an overbought conditions.

Having closed lower this past week than the previous week, if there is no positive fundamental news released this week, the probabilities favor continued profit taking and a test of the 9000 level. It is important to note that the DOW has now moved a total of 1350 points from the most recent corrective low, without any kind of a correction or building of a support level. As such, the bulls need the momentum to continue, as support levels have not been built they can rely on. One more week of sideways movement will likely weigh heavily on the index and generate increased profit taking among the bulls.

The daily closing high so far for the month, has been 9398 and the daily closing low has been 9241. It is likely that any daily close above or below either of these 2 levels will likely generate further movement in that direction.

NASDAQ Friday Close at 1985

The NASDAQ closed lower this past week thus causing the previous week's close at 2000 to become a successful retest of that major psychological resistance level. It is also important to note that 11 out of the last 13 trading days the NASDAQ has traded intra-day above 2000 but only on 3 occasions has the index been able to generate a daily close above that level. It must also be mentioned that on each occasions it happened, the index gave up the gain the following day, thus stating its inability to establish a foothold above that level, from which to generate further upside.

Up until a few weeks ago, the NASDAQ had been the leader of the indexes as most of the buying had been concentrated on mid-cap stocks. Nonetheless, that leadership has now been surrendered and that likely means the buying has shifted from general buying to value buying. Such a shift could signal that the overall bullish sentiment has gotten more discriminating.

On a weekly closing basis, there are 5 previous closes dating back to 1998 between 2002 and 2057 that signal that area as strong resistance. Above that level, resistance will be found at the 100-week MA, currently at 2080. On a daily closing basis, there is decent resistance at 2009/2011 from the 2 high closes seen over the past 2 weeks. Above that level only minor resistance is seen at 2092. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor from a previous high weekly close at 1859 and strong at 1756. On a daily closing basis, support is now decent between 1968 and 1973 and then nothing until 1862 is reached (previous high daily close of some consequence). Strong support is found between 1746 and 1765.

The NASDAQ has now shown a daily close at 2011 and a successful retest at 2009. In addition, the array of 11 intra-day forays above 2000 without being able to generate a beachhead above that level, seems to suggest that the index will have a tough time heading any higher unless strong fundamental help becomes available from here on in. The lower close on Friday, after last week's close at 2000, is another indication that its probable the index needs more base and support building before attempting to take out this very major psychological resistance. The lower close this past week also suggests that the momentum to the upside has waned. As such, the index, much like with the DOW, likely requires continued positive news to generate any further upside from these levels.

The NASDAQ has clearly defined daily close resistance up at 2009/2011 and support at 1968/1973. A close above or below either of these levels will likely generate further movement in that direction. Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that in the case of this index, there is strong weekly close resistance above at 2080 (100-weekly MA) as well as strong monthly close resistance from the 100-month MA currently at 2000. As mentioned in previous newsletters, even when the NASDAQ was in an established bull market (2003-2007), the index was not successful in establishing itself above that line until the 4th year of the bull market. Because of this fact, it is likely that the upside of the index has strong limits of upward movement.

Having closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, as well as on the lower half of Friday's trading range, the probabilities favor weakness early in the week. Am intra-day move below 1962 could cause a fast drop down to the 1881 level as there is no established support until that previous high and 50-day MA is reached.

S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1004

The SPX did close lower than the previous week's close thus giving a signal that a temporary top at 1010 may have been found. This is especially indicative as no recent previous resistance is found at that level. Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that back in 2003, that same level, on a weekly closing basis, proved to be strong resistance for a period of 3 months.

The close on Friday was considered a small positive as the index had traded below 1000 for most of the day. Nonetheless, as has been mostly the case during this 5-month rally, buying came in late in the day and lifted the index once more above 1000. As such, the close on Friday left things in limbo regarding the direction the index will take this coming week.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is only psychological at 1000, no other resistance is found until the 100-week MA currently up at 1163 is reached. Nonetheless, on the monthly chart, resistance is strong at the 200-month MA at 1014. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent resistance between 1010 and 1013. Above that level there is no resistance until minor resistance at 1166 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, support is non-existent until strong support is found at 879/882. Below that level there is minor support at 825 and very strong support at 800. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent support between 994 and 997, and minor at 975. Below that level there is also minor support at 946 from a previous daily high close. There is also minor support at the 50-day MA at 936, and strong support at the most recent low close, as well as 200-day MA at 879.

This past week, on a daily closing basis, the SPX was able to generate a daily closing high (1013) above the previous weeks daily closing high at 1010. Nonetheless, that event did not generate any follow through buying and on Friday that mini breakout was negated when the index closed at 1004. It is evident that the action from 2003 at these same levels, as well as the 200-month MA at 1014 is offering resistance from which the index is having problems overcoming. With the probability that the economic reports this week will not give much help or hindrance to the indexes, the likelihood of further profit taking at these levels occurring is high.

It is evident, though, that the 1000 level is a major psychological point to the market and just as likely as it is that profit taking will occur when the index is above that level, the probabilities of the index generating buying when below are the same. As mentioned in previous newsletters, the trading range for 3 months back in 2003 was 1015 down to 962. It seems highly probable, based on what has been seen during the past 2 weeks, that a range much like that will be seen on this occasion.

The index did show some intra-day weakness on Friday, though at the end of the day the index was able to rally and close above 1000. Nonetheless, if no news of consequence is seen during the weekend, the probability of Friday's low being seen again on Monday are high, and if broken drops down to the 962-975 level could occur. Intra-day support is decent at this time at 992/994 so that will be the Monday's pivot point to the downside. By the same token, the 1013 level is the pivot point to the upside. Trading within this range (992-1013) is not likely to be indicative of anything.

Probabilities favor further downside this week as the economic reports due out are not likely to be supportive enough to generate further upside. In addition, the index did generate a lower weekly close, so without the upside momentum being stoked with further positive news, increased profit taking is likely to be seen.


The NASDAQ and SPX have both reached levels of strong psychological resistance and all 3 indexes have reached a level that for the past 2 weeks has stopped the upside momentum. The economic news calendar for the next 2 weeks is bereft of reports that are of major importance, as such, the probabilities of the indexes getting fundamental help to stoke this recent strong rally are low. Without news, it is likely that at these levels profit taking will occur, especially since most analysts have not expressed overall upside objectives much higher than where the indexes have already reached.

On the other side of the coin traders seem convinced that the indexes are still heading higher overall and therefore dips in the indexes will likely find renewed buying. Trading is likely to continue to be labored and even though a small corrective phase probably will occur, buying is likely to prevent the correction from going far, at least at this time.

It is probable, though, that because the indexes did have a lower weekly close this Friday, that further weakness will be seen at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, this is options expiration week and if weakness is seen at the beginning of the week, it is likely to be reversed, at least partially, by the end of the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation 
 
CHART Outlooks

Due to the late strength seen on Friday, in spite of the early day weakness, it is evident that the bulls continue to buy dips in the market. Nonetheless, the indexes are not likely to get any fundamental help at the beginning of the week and some further weakness is likely to be seen, at least on Monday and Tuesday. Next Friday is options expiration day and therefore some strength will likely be seen toward the end of the week. The 4 mentions this week are split with 2 mentions being purchases on stocks that show good support levels beneath as well as good risk/reward ratios, and 2 mentions are sales in stocks that have shown definite signs of a topping out formation.

IR (Friday Closing Price - 28.91)

IR has been on a tear to the upside since it broke through a previous double top at the 23.25 level. During the past 5 weeks the stock has been able to rally from a low of 19.57 to this past week's high at 29.88 and other than the psychological resistance at $30, the stock shows no resistance until the 100-week MA is reached up at $32. Even then, actual previous high resistance is not found until the stock reaches the $37.50-$38 level.

IR generated a positive reversal week this past week going below last week's low and then rallying strongly at the end of the week to go above last week's high and closing in the upper half of the week's range. Such action suggests that the drop in price at the beginning of the week was a small correction and retest of support, and the strength at the end of the week that further upside is likely to be seen.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor, and only psychological, at $30. Above that level, the 100-week MA is presently at 32.10, the 200-week MA is currently at 37.45. Previous high weekly close resistance is not found until 36.43 and that resistance is considered minor. On a daily closing basis, resistance is very minor at 31.17 and then nothing until decent resistance at 35.95 to 36.43 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, there is no support until minor to decent support is reached at the previous weekly closing high at 23.25. Strong support will be found at 19.88. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 28.04 (27.53 on an intra-day basis), and then nothing until the previous daily high close at 23.53 is reached. At that level, also the 50-day MA is currently found.

IR received a bullish earnings report on July 24th which generated a runaway gap between 24.47 and 25.35. Previously the stock had left a gap, now considered a breakaway gap, at 16.88-17.79. Such a gap scenario, which has now been confirmed with the follow through action, is a powerful formation that suggests higher prices will be seen. In addition, both gaps were made with spike highs and those spikes have not been tested, also suggesting that the top of this rally has not yet been seen.

It is evident that the $30 level will be strong psychological resistance but with no other previous resistance found at that price, if the indexes continue to hold their gains the probabilities of the stock breaking above that level are strong. In addition, the stock this past week showed a positive reversal, which included a correction down to the 27.53 level. On Friday, the stock did close near its lows of the day, based on the weakness in the indexes, as well as from the selling seen at the $30 level. It is probable there will be some follow through on Monday to that weakness and that the daily closing support at 28.04 will be tested. Such a drop will give purchases a clearly defined stop loss point that will offer a very good risk/reward ratio.

IR will likely continue to receive aggressive buying if the indexes are able to hold on to their recent gains. If the indexes renew their up-trend, it could be the kind of a catalyst that could generate the stock to move up to the 200-week MA up at $37.

Purchases of IR between 28.04 and 28.12 and using a stop loss at 27.43 and having an objective of 32.10 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1. Even if only the $30 level is seen (highly probable) the risk/reward ratio will still be at least 3-1

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

DIS (Friday's closing price - 25.86)

DIS is showing the same kind of chart formation as the DOW with an inverted Head & Shoulders formation where the neckline has been broken and tested successfully. If the indexes are to be heading higher, this stock is likely to follow them to the upside. In addition, DIS also shows a very strong confirmed psychological support level at $25 from which the bulls can purchase thus limiting their risk.

DIS has also been a stock that throughout the years has shown a tendency to trade between psychological supports. Having been able to test the $25 level psychological support successfully, it is likely that the stock will be trying to get up to the next psychological level at $30.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 26.69 from the most recent high weekly close. Above that level there is only decent resistance from the 100-week MA at 27.70 and from the 200-week MA at 29.05. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent to strong between 26.69 and 26.80 from the two most recent high closes. Above that level there is no resistance until the psychological resistance at $30 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, there is decent support at 25.12, which also includes the strong psychological support at $25. Below that level there is minor support at 23.41 and strong support at 22.41. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 25.27 and decent support at 25.12.

DIS seems to be closely following the DOW. As such, if the indexes head higher, this stock will likely do the same. Nonetheless, there is one additional strong positive to trading this stock and that is the confirmed weekly closing support at $25 that allows traders to purchase the stock with a clearly defined support level as well as small risk factor.

The breakout from the Head & Shoulders formation gives DIS an objective of 35.09. With no previous weekly close resistance until 34.39 is reached, if the H&S formation stands up, the objective in this stock could be realized. Nonetheless, the stock did have a reversal day on Friday (higher highs, lower lows, and a close in the red) and therefore should see some weakness on Monday and perhaps on Tuesday. It must also be mentioned that the stock does have a breakaway/runaway gap formation (23.21-23.37 and 24.13-24.36) and if the weakness is seen it is possible that gap area will be approached this week.

Nonetheless, if this area does hold up, much like the indexes holding above their respective supports, the probabilities of higher prices will be high, with a very viable objective of $30 being reached.

Purchases of DIS between 25.20 and 25.39 and using a stop loss at 24.47 and having an objective of $30 will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

RSG (Friday's closing price - 25.24)

RSG had been on a very strong up-trend from a low of 15.05 up to a high of 27.34 seen 2 weeks ago. Nonetheless, the company received a less than expected earnings report and took a drop down last week signaling that perhaps the top of the rally has been found. In addition, the stock got up within 25 points of the 200-week MA, giving additional reasons to think that further upside will be difficult to achieve.

It is also important to note that the $27 level has been a very strong pivot point for RSG since 2007, and it is unlikely that unless a bull market is in place that the stock will be successful in heading higher.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 25.86 and strong at 26.60. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 25.86 and very strong at 26.60, from a double top at that price. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 25.01 and minor again at 23.64. Below that level, support is strong at 21.54 and very strong at 19.86. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 24.92 and stronger at 24.46. Below that level there is minor to decent support at 23.41 and strong support between 22.45 and 22.60 from several previous daily low closes as well as from the 200-day MA.

RSG has given both fundamental as well as chart signs that a top to rally that started in March at $15 has been found. The successful retest of the 200-week MA, as well as the double top built up at 26.60, are powerful resistance levels that are unlikely to get broken without some major help from outside sources. If a top has been found drops down to test the closest support level of any consequence at 21.54 will likely occur. In addition, if the indexes do get into a corrective phase, drops down to the strong weekly close support at 19.86 could also be seen.

Nonetheless, it is likely that a one more rally up to test the double top at 26.60 will occur. It is also important to note that the highs made in January between 26.52 and 26.81, prior to the recent high made at 27.34, could be seen if the stock does generate a retest of the highs. With last week having been an inside week (lower highs and higher lows than the previous week), it likely means the immediate negatives to the earnings report have been diffused. As such, if the stock is able to get above last week's high at 25.71, the probabilities of a rally up to at least the 26.52 level will increase strongly. Such a rally, though, if it fails to generate new highs would likely be seen as a successful retest of all upside levels mentioned, and should then generate a new trend to the downside.

Sales of RSG between 26.49 and 26.81 and using a stop loss at 27.44 and having an objective of at least 21.54, will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

GE (Friday's closing price - 13.92)

GE is a company that has a weak fundamental picture (negative earnings on their financial division) and as such is one of the stocks most likely to fall if the indexes do get into a correction. In addition, the stock recently broke above an 8-month high at 14.55 but was unable to generate any follow through to the breakout, showing there is no strong buying interest above the $15 level.

It must also be mentioned that for the last 2 weeks GE has gone up to the 50-week MA but has been unable to breakthrough. With the weak fundamental picture it seems highly unlikely the stock will have the means to generate any further upside from these levels.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is very strong between 14.53 and 14.70 (double top at that level). On a daily closing basis, there is very minor resistance at 14.10 and strong resistance between 14.53 and 14.70. On a weekly closing basis, support minor at 12.86 and then nothing until strong support is found at 10.78 (lowest close in July). On a daily closing basis, support is decent between 12.86 (minor low daily close in May) and 13.10 (200-day MA). Below that there is minor support at 12.47 from the 100-day MA, decent support at 11.47, and strong support at 10.70 from the lowest close since April.

GE showed an aversion to the psychological resistance at $15 when the stock broke above the previous high at 14.55 but was unable to get any higher than 14.88. In addition, when the stock broke and closed above the previous high at 14.53, it was only able to generate a close at 14.70 that was promptly negated with 4 closes in a row below the previous high close. Such action is indicative of a stock that shows no ability to go higher, in spite of the strength shown in the indexes over the past week.

GE is showing an open gap between 12.44 and 12.97 that has no fundamental reason for existing, and therefore is likely to become a strong magnet once the stock has ascertained its inability to go higher. It is important to note that if the gap is closed, both the 200 and 100 day MA's will be broken, leaving the stock with a probable objective of a drop down to the $10 psychological support.

Sales of GE between above 14.00 and using a stop loss at 14.65 and having an objective of 10.50 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).

Updates 
Updates on Held Stocks
Open Positions and stop loss changes 

NUAN is showing a clearly defined Head & Shoulders formation on the weekly chart with the left shoulder at 13.82, the head at 14.25 and the right shoulder at 13.86. The necklines are seen as a double bottom at 11.84. The objective of such a formation, if the neckline is broken, would be 9.43. In addition, with the red close on Friday, the weekly close a week ago is now being shown as a successful retest of the 11-month high at 14.25. The stock closed at a pivotal weekly support level on Friday at 13.20 (closed at 13.16) and if the stock generates another red close next Friday, strong selling will likely be seen. The stock did have a spike type day on Friday and that suggests lower prices on Monday and Tuesday. Minor to decent intra-day support is found between 12.66 and 12.77 (spike lows seen twice in the Apr and Jun) as well as the 100-day MA. Those levels will be highly important this coming week. Any break below that level will likely generate moves down to the 11.84 area. Resistance will now be strong between 14.00 and 14.06.

AMZN was able to stop its fall this past week by closing at a minor previous daily close support at 83.58. Nonetheless, any red close on Monday will likely take the stock down to test the psychological support at 80.00 and/or the 100-day MA currently at 81.00. On the weekly closing chart, though, no support is seen until the previous low close at 77.63 is reached. The stock is presently in a short-term downtrend and shows no signs that buying of consequence is being seen. A second successful retest of the highs was seen this week with the rally up to 86.60. Stops should now be placed with confidence at 86.70. If the indexes do show the expected weakness on Monday, drops down to 81.00 or 80.00 should be seen.

GPS generated a spike high this past week when the stock rallied up to 19.36. Nonetheless, the stock was unable to generate any late buying and closed near the lows of the day and only a few points above the previous daily high close double top at 18.61. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, that close must be considered a breakout and though the spike type action on Friday was negative, unless the stock is able to close on Monday below 18.61, it is likely that another attempt at the highs will be made. As such, Monday is likely a pivotal day for the stock as it is expected the indexes will see some intra-day weakness at least. Any green close on Monday would be a positive.

VALE was able to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart at $20, with a second close above that level, thus increasing the probabilities of higher prices being seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock was also able to close what was considered a runaway gap on the weekly chart between 19.97 and 20.13 also increasing the possibilities of the breakaway gap between 18.24 and 18.42 being closed as well. It is evident that this coming week is an important week for the stock as both of these conflicting chart formations are not likely to stay unresolved for long. In addition, with this being option expiration week and the $20 level probably being a strong bone of contention among the option traders, it does throw additional confusion as to what the stock will do. An intra-day rally above 21.27 will likely generate follow through to the upside, while a drop below 19.75 follow through to the downside. It is Impossible to tell at this time what will happen.

HON confirmed the weekly close breakout the stock generated the previous week with a second close above the 35.72 level. Nonetheless, the breakout did fail to generate a strong follow through this past week as the stock closed in the red and failed to generate enough buying to close an open gap from October between 37.20 and 37.63. The stock showed increased volatility and price range during the last week (signs of a top being formed) and it is evident that the stock needs help from the indexes in order to generate any further upside. A daily close above 36.49 or below 35.42 will likely generate follow through in that direction. Probabilities do favor continued upside.

DIOD gapped up on Thursday after an upgrade from an analyst and on Friday the stock attempted to close the gap but failed. The gap is now considered a runaway gap as the stock shows another gap (breakaway?) between 16.37 and 16.60. The stock did come within 30 points on Thursday of reaching the 200-week MA, currently at 22.19. Nonetheless, the stock was able to generate a close above the strong psychological resistance level at $20 and if that close is confirmed next week with another close above that level it could mean higher prices will be seen. The stock did close in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday and if the indexes do show weakness on Monday, as expected, it is possible the runaway gap will be closed. If that happens, the breakaway gap at 16.37 may become a magnet. A new high above the 200-week MA at 22.19 will likely generate further upside. Nonetheless, a close below the most recent low close at 18.52 would be a sell signal.

 


1) DIOD - Shorted at 19.95. Stop loss at 22.42. Stock closed on Friday at 20.80.

2) UTX - Covered shorts at 57.85. Averaged short at 53.55. Loss on the trade of $1290 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.

3) VALE - Averaged short at 19.716 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 21.37. Stock closed on Friday at 20.71.

4) PCLN - Shorted at 152.95. Covered short at 147.25. Profit on the trade of $570 per 100 shares minus commissions.

5) PCLN - Shorted at 149.70. Covered short at 151.16. Loss on the trade of $146 per 100 shares plus commissions.

6) AMZN - Shorted at 84.90. Averaged short at 85.36. Stop loss now at 86.70. Stock closed on Friday at 83.58.

7) HON - Averaged short at 35.97 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.87.

8) GPS - Shorted at 18.22. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.78.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.


 


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