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Issue #106 
January 18, 2009 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Possible/Probable Successful Re-test of the Lows!
DOW Friday close at 8281
The DOW had an eventful week with what could end up being the re-test of the lows that has been needed and anticipated to happen. The index did break below the 8000 level and did get near two previous lows of consequence at 7985 and 7883. Such an intra-day low, if not broken next week, will likely be considered a successful re-test of the low.
It is important to note, though, that it was the financials that brought most of the pressure to bear. Many financials stocks such as BAC and WFT made new multi-year lows and the financial index (IYF) did close within $1 of its previous all-time low, though above it. It is evident that the financials need some kind of good news this coming week in order to stop the slide they are experiencing. Without such a stop in the financials, it is probable the positive of the end-of-the-week rally in the DOW will dissipate.
On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 8236 (previous low close of consequence back in 2002) and major at 8046. On a daily closing basis, support is now very strong between 8149 and 8200 from 3 previous daily low closes over the past 3 months, including the one on Thursday. Major support is found at 7552. On an intra-day basis, support is very strong at 7883 and again at 7885/7895. On a weekly closing basis, there is decent resistance at 8829/8852, strong at 9035, and major at 9325 from the highest weekly close in the last 14 weeks as well as from the 20-week MA. On a daily closing basis, there is very minor resistance at 8516/8592, decent resistance at 8924/8934, and strong at 9035.
On Tuesday when the market reopens, the inauguration of the new President will take place. Such an event is likely to be a positive catalyst, as it is likely that the market will give the new president a grace period of about 2-3 months to see what magic he can generate.
The late rally this past week was likely due to this event and unless something negative happens over the weekend, such as a bank or financial institution reporting something unexpected, it is likely the rally will continue. There are 2 financial institutions (BAC and C) that were in the news this past week with problems of consequence. Nonetheless, as of this writing, those problems seemed to have been addressed this past week and therefore should not be a major issue next week. In addition, it was stated that the additional $350 billion dollars of TARP funds have been released by Congress and that it is now up to the new administration to administer them appropriately. That news should offer support to the market.
All in all, the outlook for further upside this coming week is strong. Any rally in the DOW above last week's high at 8603 will be seen as a strong positive. With the index closing almost 300 points above the low for the week, there is also a good possibility that if the DOW does not go below 8200 this coming week, that the past week will be seen as a spike low. Under such a scenario the range for the week could be 8200-8829.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 1529
The NASDAQ chart finally received a decent re-test of the lows this past week with a drop down to the 1457 level and a close above or at the most recent low close at 1530. The index got back down into weekly closing levels that were very important during the last recession in 2001/2002 between 1422 and 1479. By closing above that area on Friday, on a week the indexes were showing a lot of weakness, the index reaffirmed that a positive outlook for the next few weeks remains viable.
The NASDAQ has also been able to maintain its strength versus the other indexes as it has not gone down anywhere near its previous intra-day or weekly close lows. As such, it maintains the view that the weakness is more closely associated with the financials than with the general market itself and that if it wasn't for the financials, it is likely the indexes would be substantially higher.
On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 1530 and major at 1384. On a daily closing basis, support is now very strong (perhaps major) between 1490 and 1510. Some decent support will be found between 1398 and major again at 1316. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is now strong at 1632. Above that level, support is non-existent until 1711/1721 is reached. On a daily closing basis, minor to decent resistance will be found at 1538 (previous daily high close as well as 50-day MA), and again at 1572 and 1590. Strong resistance will be found at 1652 and major up at 1760/1780 (2 previous high closes of consequence as well as the 100-day MA).
The green close on Friday made Thursday's close at 1490 into a successful re-test of the 1500 level that seems to be a major support and pivot point for the index. In addition, Friday's close at 1529 was right at a previous weekly low close at 1530 and suggests that the week's break of support and strong weakness might have gotten negated at the end of the week.
Nonetheless, the NASDAQ needs further daily close strength this week to be able to re-establish the positive outlook it had shown the week prior. A close above the 50-day MA at 1538 would go far is giving the bulls added ammunition.
It is probable that this coming week the index will give an early signal regarding the outlook for the rest of the week. A daily close below 1490 would be a strong negative, while a close above 1538 would be a positive. A close above 1590 would likely re-stimulate the upside and give a rally objective of 1760.
Likely trading range for the week is 1493 to 1609.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 850
The SPX was hit the strongest this past week as it tumbled 4.5% in comparison to the NASDAQ's drop of 2.8% and the DOW's drop of 3.7%. The reasons for the weakness were new worries in the financial community as to the continued viability of the banking industry. Many banking stocks fell into new multi-year lows and looked bad doing so. On a positive note, though, the index itself was able to hold above a major weekly close support level at 800 while testing, likely successfully, another support level of some consequence at 818. The close on Friday at 850 must also be considered a positive as back in 2002, just prior to a rally up to 965, the index had a major weekly closing low of 847.
It is evident that this past week's tumble in the SPX must either be considered the precursor of a new upside rally of consequence or the beginning of a new leg of the bear trend. In simple words, the SPX this coming week will likely tell the story of what to expect for the next couple of months.
On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 847 and major at 800. On a daily closing basis, support is strong (perhaps major) between 842 and 852 with now 4 important low daily closes in that area. Major support will be found at 752. On an intra-day basis, support will be strong at 816/818 with also 4 previous intra-day low at that price. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 896 and very strong between 932 and 940 (from two weekly closing highs in 2002, as well as a recent weekly closing high at 940 and the most recent weekly closing high at 932). Above that level, resistance will also be strong at 968 from the most recent high weekly close. On a daily closing basis, resistance is now decent at 896 and again at 909/913 and strong at 934.
Having gotten down near to the major support at 800 this past week, it is evident that any further weakness will likely result in a break of the major double bottom at that price. Such a break would be of great consequence and likely lead to substantially who-know-how-low prices. Under 800, on a weekly closing basis, the market has no support of consequence at all, going back over 20 years.
On the positive side, any strength seen this week could lead the SPX into a strong rally that could last for a couple of months. If the drop this past week is deemed a successful re-test of the lows it will likely generate aggressive chart buying and would likely bring into the market much of the money that has been sitting on the sidelines for the past few months.
It is evident that at the base of all these problems are the financial institutions. Many of these are at or close to 20-year lows and at prices that will either bring bankruptcy or solution. With the new President taking office on Tuesday, hope for a solution will likely be the key word for the next few months. As such, I would expect the financial industry to pick itself up from the floor and stage some form of a lasting rally.
Probable trading range for the week is 840 to 913.
After what looks like a successful re-test of the lows, the indexes seem to be poised to stage a rally on the heels of the new president taking office. It is likely that the marketplace will be giving Obama the benefit of the doubt for at least 60-90 days (likely until the next quarter round of earnings).
After 7 straight down days, the indexes were finally able to stage a 2-day rally and closed out the week on a positive note. It is likely, though, that for the next few weeks, while the earnings for this quarter are coming out, that the indexes will continue to show a fair amount of volatility. Nonetheless, it is also likely that the bias will be to the upside as it is difficult to imagine any further news coming out that would be more negative than it is already anticipated to be.
The coming week will be very important, as confirmation of a successful re-test of the lows is needed. If confirmation is not given, then it is likely the bear trend will continue and much lower prices will be seen.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Due to the probability that the past week was a successful re-test of the lows, purchases of stocks will be the only mentions this week.
NTES (Friday close at 17.53)
Like with so many stocks NTES has been on a quest to re-test the lows made 2 months ago at 15.00. This past week the stock dropped back down to an intra-day area of support that has been important on 5 different occasions in the last 18 months between 16.23 and 16.93 with a drop down to 16.61. In addition, on a weekly closing basis, the stock has had 6 previous occasions during the last 30 months where it stopped and generated a strong move up from weekly closing lows between 17.02 and 17.60. Friday's closing low at 17.53 is right in that range.
It is also quite evident on the weekly chart that since 2005 the stock has basically traded in a sideways trading range between $15 and $23. With the probabilities that a rally is set to occur in the indexes, the fact the stock is near the lows of the established trading range is reason to believe that a rally will occur from this level.
On a weekly closing basis, support is strong is major at 15.90 and very strong between 17.02 and 17.60. On a daily closing basis, support is strong between 17.06 (most recent low) and 17.15. Some decent support will also be found at 16.25 and major support at 15.68. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent between 18.89 and 19.11, strong between 21.26 and 21.45, and very strong up between 22.77 and 22.90. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent up at 19.06 and then basically nothing of consequence until a previous high as well as the 200-day MA is reached up at 21.56. On an intra-day basis, the stock will likely find some decent resistance up at 19.14 but if broken the stock could easily get up to the 21.98 level.
It is probable that the drop in price this past week was a successful retest of the support levels of consequence in NTES. If there is any strength this coming week in the indexes, the stock is likely to rally up to at least the 19.14 level. Nonetheless, the resistance there is not strong and if broken a rally up to the mid 21's would likely occur.
NTES is also a stock that has survived the major drop in the indexes over the past year. The stock has established over a period of over 3 years a very well defined trading range and now finds itself at the support level of the bottom of the range.
Purchases of NTES at 17.34 or better and placing a stop loss at 16.41 and having an objective of 21.98 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).
CALM (Friday close at 29.37)
CALM is a stock that generally tracks the DOW and yet the stock did not have any kind of meaningful dip in price this past week. In addition, the stock is showing a chart pattern that is positive and from which a strong run to the upside can occur. This past week the stock was mentioned by Motley Fool as one of 5 stocks that are showing high insider ownership as well as strong sales and earnings growth, high margins, and high return on equity.
CALM has also been on a tear since it made its 1-year low on Nov 17th, successfully re-testing the lows made back in Jan08. The stock, since that date, saw 8 weeks in a row having a higher weekly close than the previous week. It was not until this week, with the strong break in the indexes that the stock finally saw a small corrective move down. As such, this seems to be a stock that will continue to move up strongly if the indexes head higher.
On a weekly closing basis, support is decent between 28.47 and 28.92, decent again at 27.43, strong at 24.32, and major at 21.55. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 29.33/29.39, strong at 28.47 and again at 27.41, and very strong around $25. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 30.25/30.28, minor at 32.15 from the 50-week MA, decent again at 33.64 from two previous weekly closes at that price, and strong at 37.83. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 30.28 from the most recent high daily close, minor at 31.45 from a previous low daily close of consequence as well as from the 100-day MA. Further resistance of some consequence is found between 33.57 and 34.71. Major resistance on the daily closing chart is up at $40.
As I mentioned above, CALM has been showing decent strength this week as the stock normally follows the indexes but this week was able to dust of the weakness seen in the market. In addition, the stock broke above the 100-day MA over a week ago and has been able to stay, on a daily closing basis, above that level. With possible strength to be seen in the indexes this week, it is likely this stock will benefit greatly from it.
There is a very decent possibility the stock will drop down to 27.25/27.72, as the chart seems to be calling for a spike low. Nonetheless, with the inability of the stock to get below 28.70 for the last 2 weeks, in spite of the strong weakness in the indexes, it is also possible that such a drop may not occur. This type of a trade may call for holding of the stock if the stock breaks its recent support at 28.81, or selling the stock on the break (if it comes) and buying it back at the next support level down around 27.72.
It must be mentioned that the stock has a major gap between 32.33 and 36.75 that will act as strong resistance. In addition, there is a previous high of consequence at 35.33 that even if the stock gets into the gap will likely be a strong obstacle to closing the gap.
Purchases of CALM at 29.12 or better and placing a stop loss at 28.71 or if more "wiggle" room is desired at 27.15 and having an objective of $40 will offer a risk/reward ratio of over 5-1. A more viable objective may be 35.33 and in that case the risk/reward ratio would be 3-1 if the lower stop loss is used or 12-1 if the higher stop loss is used.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).
ZOLT (Friday close at 6.93)
ZOLT is a stock that has been in a major downtrend since August 2007. The stock has fallen from a high of 51.77 to a low of 4.29 seen on November 17th. Since the last correction of consequence seen last May from 20.14 to 33.69, the stock has basically dropped straight down with only small insignificant corrections along the way. Nonetheless, this last small correction up to 9.40 has one change of consequence from the previous corrections and that is that the move back down to re-test the lows has taken the stock to a long-term intra-day support level of consequence at 6.03. In other words, it suggests that there is a good possibility the stock has found a bottom. If such is the case, a short-covering rally of consequence could occur.
In addition, ZOLT is in an industry of alternative energy products that will likely be strongly supported by the new President. With a possible successful re-test of the lows this past week and Obama taking office on Tuesday, it is possible that this stock will start moving up immediately.
On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 6.80/7.00, from recent closes as well as closes dating back to 2004. Support is major at the 6-year low made recently at 5.00. On a daily closing basis, support is decent between 6.27 and 6.46 and major at 5.00. On an intra-day basis, support is very strong at 6.00/6.03 form a double bottom at that price. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 9.18 and strong again at 10.12 (both from a previous high weekly close as well as psychological. Above that level there is strong resistance at 13.15. On a daily closing basis, there is decent resistance between 8.20 and 8.33 from two previous daily high closes as well as from the 20 and 50 day MA's. Resistance will be strong at 9.29 and then again at $10. Major resistance, on a daily closing basis, will be seen between 12.70 and 12.88.
If ZOLT has found a bottom, the first course of action would be for a stronger short-covering rally to occur where a buy signal would be given. Under this scenario it is likely that the previous high at 9.40 would be broken and rallies up to the psychological level of $10 or to a previous intra-day high of consequence at 11.21 would be seen. Possibilities also exist of rallies up to 12.10 or even perhaps up to the $13 level.
Purchases of ZOLT between 6.61 and 6.75 and using a stop loss at 5.91 and an objective of 11.21 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).
GE (Friday close at 13.96)
GE is a well run company with good management and strong leadership. Nonetheless, the stock finds itself trading at 12-year lows due to the economic downturn that has affected the marketplace. With the possibility that the stock indexes successfully re-tested the lows this past week, companies such as GE offer the safest chance for profit.
GE had a reversal type day on Friday after having tested the previous daily closing low of 12.84 with an intra-day drop down to 13.06. The re-test and reversal pattern of lower lows and higher highs than the previous day followed by a close in the green seems to be a sign that a bottom may now be in place. In addition, the weekly closing low of 13.96 is in tune with the previous closing low of 14.03 and if the stock is able to close higher next Friday, will give the chart a double bottom of consequence.
On a weekly closing basis, support is found at 14.03. On a daily closing basis, support is very strong at 12.84 and minor at Thursday's close of 13.77. On an intra-day basis, support is major at 12.58 (12-year low) and again at 13.06 (Friday's low). On a weekly closing basis, resistance is non-existent until the most recent weekly high close at 17.07 is reached. Decent resistance is also found at 17.85 and strong resistance at 19.51 from the highest weekly close since the collapse began as well as from the 20-week MA.
Probabilities seem to suggest that Friday's intra-day drop down to 13.06, close at 13.96, and reversal action point to a bottom being set in this stock. If the indexes do rally this coming week as anticipated, GE would likely be one of the leaders to the upside as it is one of the premier companies in the market. In addition, the chart offers a well-defined risk/reward ratio that is extremely attractive due to the overall fundamental strength of the company.
It should also be noted that on the monthly chart the stock has been in a downtrend since July and is way overdue for a corrective phase. Such a corrective phase could include a rally back up to the 200-month MA up around the $30 level. This makes this particular trade into a possible home run.
Purchases of GE between 13.25 and 13.65 and using a stop loss at 12.48 and having a minimum objective of 19.51 will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with the strongest probability rating being 5).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks
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Open Positions and stop loss changes
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| NUAN received a strong piece of news this week when a statement was made that a contract with IBM had been signed for a long-term association in voice recognition software. The stock gapped up and closed out the week above a decent resistance level at 10.36. The gap this past week might be considered a runaway gap as the first gap at 7.59-7.80 (now likely considered a breakaway gap) gives the stock a bullish chart pattern. The stock will need to close above the 100-day MA, currently at 10.80, to generate further upside. Nonetheless, if the indexes do rally this week, as anticipated, that is likely to happen. Resistance will be seen at the most recent daily high close at 11.27 and again at the 200-week MA currently at 12.08. In addition, there is an open gap that has not been closed at 12.41 that is likely to offer strong resistance as well. Major resistance, in the form of a major weekly closing high, will be found at 13.46 and it is unlikely at this time that resistance level will be taken out. Likely trading range for the next few weeks could be 10.00-13.46. AA broke down this week after a bearish earnings report came out on Monday. Nonetheless, the stock was able to maintain a positive outlook as it closed out the week at an important weekly closing support level at 9.41. In addition, on the weekly chart, the stock is showing a possible inverted head & shoulders formation that if broken (a close above 12.11) would give an objective of a move up to the $16 level. On the daily chart, the stock was also able to successfully test the important daily closing low at 9.03 with a close on Wednesday at 9.04. If the indexes do not break down this coming week, it is likely that the stock will begin to move up above the $10 level. A close above 10.76 would re-invigorate the strength shown two weeks ago and likely cause further upside to be seen. A daily close below 9.03 would be a negative and be a cause for liquidating long positions. VLO broke above the 20-week MA two weeks ago and this past week was able to confirm that breakout with a second close above the line. In addition, the stock had also been able to close above the 100-day MA 10 day's ago but had not been able to stay above that level consistently during this period of time. On Friday, the stock was once again able to close above that line and if the indexes rally this week, it is likely that the stock will do the same. On Wednesday the stock closed at 22.18 thus re-testing the previous breakout price of 21.97 as well as the 20-day MA. The re-test was successful and now the stock looks poised to go higher. Any close above 24.95 will likely stimulate a strong buying spree and a rally up to the $30 level. A close below 22.18 would now be very negative. AMZN failed to maintain itself above the 200-week MA this past week and fell back to its strong weekly closing support at 48.96 and intra-day support at 47.36. The close on Friday was uneventful on the weekly chart but on the daily chart the stock was able to make Wednesday's close at 48.49 into a successful re-test of the 50-day MA at that price. Resistance is decent between 52.97 and 53.18 but a close above that level will likely generate a move back up to the 100-day MA at 57.39. A close below 48.49 would be strongly bearish. Drops back down intra-day to 48.56 are possible. STP seems to be maintaining itself in a short-term up-trend on the weekly chart as the stock was able to close out a week of weakness above a previous weekly closing low of 10.29. The stock has received several downgrades this week and generally speaking is considered to be fundamentally weak. Nonetheless, the stock has been able to maintain its chart strength. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 12.90 and support is strong at 10.29. On the daily chart, the stock has been able to stay above its strong support level at 10.12 and this past week that level was tested successfully with a close at 10.16 followed by two higher closes. A close above 11.75 is needed to re-generate the upside. A close below 10.12 would be bearish and reason to liquidate long positions. The chart looks iffy on both directions and therefore the stock likely needs some help from the indexes to go higher. TRA received an unsolicited bid of $20 per share on Friday from its largest competitor. That news generated a strong gap opening and rally on Friday. The stock did close on Friday at a strong resistance level at $20 where the 200-week MA is located. On the weekly chart, the 20-week MA is currently around 22.60 and the 100-day MA is currently up at 23.50. Strong resistance on the daily closing chart up between 22.99 and 24.36, from previous high daily closes of consequence. Support on the daily closing chart will now be decent at 18.75. Friday's gap is also the second gap on the chart and likely will be considered a runaway gap. As such, drops back below Friday's low of 18.59 are unlikely. Further upside is expected this week, especially if the indexes are strong. The upside resistance levels are clearly defined and will be difficult to break. Nonetheless, the company is in an industry that is likely to show overall strength over the next few weeks and the unsolicited bid could be a strong catalyst for further upside. TNE broke below a relatively important intra-day support at 11.17 and dropped down to 10.87. Nonetheless, with Friday's green close, the drop will now be considered a successful re-test of the recent low at 10.17. In addition, the stock has strong support on the weekly closing chart between 11.45 and 11.91. With Friday's close at 11.58, it will also be considered a successful re-test of that level if it closes higher next Friday. On the daily closing chart, important support is found between 11.33 and 11.45 and therefore any close below that level must be considered slightly negative. On the positive side, there is no resistance on the daily closing chart until minor resistance is found between 12.50 and 12.84. Stronger resistance is found up at 13.65. If the indexes are strong this week, stock could get up as high as the 100-day MA as well as previous daily close resistance of consequence up at 14.68. AKS was another stock that received selling pressure when the report for AA came out bearish. The stock broke a decent support level up at the $11 area and dropped down to the next major intra-day support level at 8.25/8.40 with a drop down to 8.44. On a weekly closing basis, though, the stock is in a short-term up-trend and the stock was able to close above its previous weekly close support at 8.80. In addition, the stock closed at the 50-day MA at 9.23 on Wednesday and with higher daily closes on Thursday and Friday was able to give a successful re-test signal of that line as well. Resistance will now be strong at 11.08 on a daily closing basis (11.50 intra-day). A close below 9.23 would be short-term bearish. Stock likely saw its lows this past week and will be moving up from here, especially if the indexes rally.
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1) TNE - Purchased at 11.86 and again at 11.30. Averaged long at 11.58. Stock closed on Friday at 11.58.
2) TRA - Purchased at 16.74 and again at 15.34. Averaged long at 16.04. Liquidated at 15.12. Loss on the trade of $184 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
3) LEN - Covered short at 10.65. Shorted at 10.00. Loss on the trade of $65 per 100 shares plus commissions.
4) TRA - Liquidated at 15.69. Purchased at 15.53. Profit on the trade of $16 per 100 shares minus commissions.
5) WFC - Purchased at 24.91. Averaged long at 25.20. Liquidated at 22.47. Loss on the trade of $546 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
6) AA - Liquidated at 10.00. Purchased at 10.86. Loss on the trade of $86 per 100 shares plus commissions.
7) AKS - Purchased at 10.20 and again at 9.46. Averaged long at 9.83. Stop loss down at 8.15. Stock closed on Friday at 9.63.
8) AMZN - Purchased at 50.50. Stop loss at 47.53. Stock closed on Friday at 51.59. .
9) NUAN - Purchased at 10.50. Stop loss at 9.23. Stock closed on Friday at 10.49.
10) VLO - Purchased at 23.60. Stop loss lowered to 22.05 on a stop close only basis. Stock closed on Friday at 24.03.
11) HANS - Liquidated at 30.74. Purchased at 31.84. Loss on the trade of $110 per 100 shares plus commissions.
12) RMBS - Liquidated at 10.14. Averaged long at 10.97 Loss on the trade of $166 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
13) AA - Averaged long at 18.805. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.43.
14) TRA - Purchased at 14.63. Covered long at 22.10. Profit on the trade of $747 per 100 shares minus commissions.
15) TRA - Purchased at 18.74. Stop loss at 18.28. Stock closed on Friday at 20.49.
16) STP - Purchased at 10.44. Stop loss at 10.19 stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 10.81.
17) WFC - Purchased at 20.23. Liquidated at 19.60. Loss on the trade of $63 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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